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Here are the main highlights for some of Australia's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Rising biofuel demand may position canola for potential growth
What this means for grain producers: Transport fuel demand has remained resilient in recent years, with EV sales largely confined to passenger vehicles and therefore having limited impact on diesel and jet fuel use. As biofuels are increasingly considered among the solutions for hard‑to‑abate transport sectors, canola’s role in energy markets could rise. This could contribute to a more diversified demand base for canola, which may support longer‑term price resilience relative to scenarios without additional biofuel demand, and may influence its role in crop rotations as Australia seeks to capture more value from the energy transition.
How grain traders can benefit: Australia currently exports more than six million tonnes of canola seed each year – equivalent to over two billion litres of renewable diesel – while Australia and New Zealand together import more than 36 billion litres of diesel annually. This imbalance highlights a potential opportunity to add value to Australian supply chains. As Asia‑Pacific biofuel capacity expands and European rules tighten on crop‑based fuels, trade flows may pivot from seed toward oil, increasing the importance of traceability and consistent feedstock supply to emerging fuel markets.
What can change for canola crushers: Against the backdrop of a global biofuel surge and rapidly expanding Asia‑Pacific refining capacity, the relative value and importance of canola oil – rather than seed – is increasing in global markets. This shift could strengthen the underlying economics of canola crushing, as demand increasingly favours processed oil over raw exports. A more consistent pull for vegetable oil may support improved crushing margins and asset utilisation in some market conditions, though outcomes will depend on seed costs, energy prices, logistics, policy settings and by‑product values.
What is next for fuel producers: While EV uptake is reshaping petrol demand, diesel and jet fuel are projected in several outlooks to remain comparatively resilient. Canola oil aligns well with a rising Asia‑Pacific biofuel industry, and Australia’s geographical proximity may reduce freight time/costs relative to some origins, such as Western Hemisphere suppliers of vegetable oil. As regional mandates, blending targets and carbon frameworks evolve, market participants with secured supply may be less exposed to certain market disruptions, although they remain subject to price, policy, certification and counterparty risks.
Middle East conflict has potential implications for biofuel markets: Reduced energy exports from Persian Gulf countries caused by the current conflict have sharpened attention on energy security and the reliance on imported liquid fuels. While impacts are still emerging, such conditions reinforce policy support for alternative fuels, potentially accelerating biofuel policy implementation and investment in lagging markets such as Australia and New Zealand.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news -23 March 2026
Price indices across all commodity groups—cereals, meat, dairy, vegetable oils and sugar—rose to varying degrees, reflecting not only underlying market fundamentals but also responses to higher energy prices linked to the conflict escalation in the Near East. Compared to historical levels, the FFPI stood 1.2 points (1%) above its value a year ago but remained as much as 31.7 points (19.8%) below the peak reached in March 2022.
The FAO Meat Price Index averaged 127.7 points in March, up 1.2 points (1%) from February and 9.4 points (8%) above its level a year ago.
The increase was mainly driven by higher pig meat prices, alongside a modest rise in bovine meat quotations, while ovine and poultry meat prices softened. Pig meat prices surged, underpinned by rising quotations in the European Union ahead of strengthening seasonal demand.
World bovine meat prices also rose, led by Brazil, where tightening cattle availability curtailed exportable supplies against the backdrop of solid global demand; this was partly offset by stable prices in Australia, supported by ample availability.
World poultry meat prices edged lower, reflecting weaker quotations in Brazil amid ample supplies and steady import demand, with shipments to key Near East destinations rerouted through the Red Sea.
The FAO Dairy Price Index averaged 120.9 points, up 1.5 points (1.2%) in March, but remained 27.8 points (18.7%) below its level a year earlier. This marked the first increase since July 2025, driven primarily by higher quotations for skim milk powder (SMP), butter, and whole milk powder (WMP), while lower international cheese prices limited the overall rise. SMP and WMP prices extended the upward trend observed since January, supported by firm global import demand and a seasonal decline in milk supplies in Oceania as the production cycle moved past its peak.
International butter prices also edged up, with stronger gains in Oceania reflecting tightening milk fat availability, while increases in the European Union remained moderate due to comfortable cream supplies amid improving seasonal milk flows. By contrast, cheese prices declined further in the European Union, where increased milk availability, higher cheese output, and subdued export demand weighed on quotations, while prices in Oceania firmed, supported by tighter supply conditions and relatively strong demand.
In March, Brazilian soybean farmgate prices rose by 1% compared to the previous month. This increase was modest compared to CBOT gains, as local prices were constrained by a record harvest, a stronger BRL, and high freight costs.Farmgate corn prices rose by 3% month over month in March, supported by climate uncertainty surrounding the safrinha crop and expectations of stronger domestic demand driven by corn ethanol expansion.In February 2026, Brazilian soybean exports reached 7.1m metric tons, an increase of 11% from February 2025. Brazil's new zero-tolerance rule for damaged soybeans is tightening phytosanitary certifications for China, temporarily halting exports.In February 2026, corn exports totaled 1.5m metric tons, down 75% from the previous month but 8% higher than a year earlier.Overall corn crop conditions remain good, although a larger share of safrinha corn was planted outside the ideal window. RaboResearch maintains its production forecast at 137m metric tons.
Global agricultural prices had been easing through 2025, but recent months have brought uneven price movements. Now, the conflict in the Middle East is raising new risks—disrupting oil and fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global agrifood supply. The World Food Program estimates that the conflict could potentially push 45 million additional people into acute hunger by mid-2026.
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization warns that the risks from the current conflict, including energy prices shocks and trade route disruptions, are setting the stage for sharper price increases in the months ahead. Commodity market estimates from the World Bank show a spike in fertilizer prices between February and March 2026, with urea prices surging by nearly 46 percent month on month amid the on-going conflict in the Middle East - building on longer-term increases driven by structurally tighter markets and higher production costs.
Conflict and climate shocks continue to be the primary regional drivers of acute food insecurity. More than 87 million people are facing hunger in East and Southern Africa, and 52 million are projected to be acutely food insecure in West and Central Africa by mid-2026.
Compared to the last Update in December 2025, agricultural and export price indices as of March 20, 2026, closed 7 and 30 percent lower, respectively, while the cereal price index closed 7 percent higher. Decreases in cocoa and coffee prices drove the decrease in the export index. Meanwhile, wheat, maize, and rice prices, which closed 13, 4, and 5 percent higher, respectively, since the last Update, drove the increase in the cereal price index. On a year-on-year basis, the average price for wheat is 7 percent higher, whereas rice and maize prices are 2 and 6 percent lower, respectively. Maize and wheat prices are 20 and 7 percent higher than in January 2020, and rice prices are 1 percent lower.
Quarterly food price inflation increased in low-income countries but decreased in all other income categories between the last quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. Of the 149 countries with data available for both quarters, food inflation exceeded 5 percent in 50.0 percent of low-income countries (7.1 percentage points higher than Q4 2025), 34.1 percent of lower-middle-income countries (12.2 percentage points lower), 43.9 percent of upper-middle-income countries (2.4 percentage points lower), and 7.5 percent of high-income countries (unchanged from Q4 2025). In real terms, food price inflation exceeded overall inflation in 57.1 percent of the 140 countries for which quarterly food CPI and overall quarterly CPI indexes are both available.
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