South Africa's agricultural sector is riding high on the global stage, with exports reaching a record US$13.7 billion in 2024—a 3% increase year-on-year—fueled by strong performances in citrus, grapes, maize, apples, pears, wine, nuts, fruit juices, sugar, berries, dates, pineapples, avocados, wool, apricots, peaches, cider, and beef.Q1 2025, exports hit US$3.36 billion (up 10%), and Q2 climbed to US$3.71 billion (another 10% rise), driven by higher volumes and commodity prices, despite US tariffs.
Africa remains the top destination (40% in Q2), followed by the EU (22%), Asia/Middle East (21%), and the Americas (7%), with the US accounting for just 4% (US$161 million in Q2, up 26% y-o-y, mainly citrus, wine, nuts, and juices).
Imports dipped 5% to US$1.81 billion in Q2, yielding a US$1.90 billion trade surplus (up 29%).
Yet, this export success masks a stark domestic paradox: South African consumers grapple with high food prices and inconsistent quality, even as the sector generates substantial income abroad. Food inflation hit 5.7% in July 2025, the highest in 18 months, driven by surges in meat (up due to avian flu in Brazil halting imports) and vegetables, with staples like maize meal rising from R38.48 to R43.04 by May despite lower producer costs.
Retail margins remain "sticky," with brown bread's farm-to-retail spread at 77% and sunflower oil prices climbing despite producer declines.
Average monthly food/non-alcoholic spending is R890 per person, but essentials have soared 60% since 2019 (e.g., staples from R1,303 to R2,079), straining low-income households amid 32% unemployment.
Quality issues persist, with post-harvest losses, supply chain inefficiencies, and avian flu disruptions leading to complaints about inconsistent freshness and safety.In this context of geopolitical flux—marked by US tariffs and AGOA's expiration—FNB senior agricultural economist Paul Makube urged exporters at a G20 side event to diversify into non-traditional markets like China and BRICS nations. With citrus exports revised upward to 190 million cartons for 2025 (from 171 million), Makube warned of oversupply risks without new outlets, emphasizing long-term relationships over short-term gains. Opportunities include zero-tariff access to China for citrus, nuts, and meat, and cultivating India's rising middle class despite barriers. Intra-African trade via AfCFTA holds promise, with 44% of exports already continent-bound. "Diversification isn't optional—it's a commercial imperative," Makube stressed, calling for responsive strategies amid rising protectionism.For consumers, the disconnect is palpable: export revenues fuel growth (agri at 2.5% GDP contribution), yet high costs erode purchasing power, with calls for better logistics, subsidies, and quality controls to bridge the gap. As South Africa navigates trade wars, balancing global ambition with domestic affordability is key to a resilient sector.
Western Cape Minister of Agriculture, Economic Development and Tourism, Dr. Ivan Meyer, praised the agricultural sector’s strong performance in Q2 2025, as detailed in the Agricultural Economic Quarterly Report. The Western Cape economy grew by 0.7% quarter-on-quarter and 1.3% year-on-year, with agriculture contributing significantly through a 2.5% quarterly and 14% annual growth rate, making up 4.7% of the provincial economy. Horticulture, particularly citrus, vegetables, and deciduous fruits, drove R44 billion in national gross farm income. The sector supports 20% of South Africa’s agricultural gross value added and sustains 302,604 jobs (11% of provincial employment), with 202,120 in primary agriculture (81% crop production) and 100,484 in agri-processing (led by food and beverage manufacturing). Meyer emphasized agriculture’s role in the Growth for Jobs Strategy, targeting 4–6% annual economic growth and 6,000 new jobs by 2035, with commitments to innovation, infrastructure, and market access to bolster rural job creation and economic resilience.
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