"We need to act quickly to rescue our industry," he says.
Seven years of cheap imports, droughts and a crippling sugar tax that has had a drastic effect on local sugar sales and forced the industry to export more and more at below cost because of tumbling world prices have cost thousands of jobs and brought the industry to the brink.
The sugar tax "lopped off an enormous amount of local sugar sales from our market and has had a massive impact on the growing and milling sector", Russell says.
According to a report by the National Economic Development and Labour Council (Nedlac), in the first year after the imposition of the sugar tax in 2018 16,621 jobs were lost, including 9,000 in the sugar cane growing sector, investment in the industry fell by R653m and economic output fell by more than Rlbn.
16,621 - The number of jobs lost in the first year after the imposition of the sugar tax in 2018,according to a Nedlac report
There have been calls on the government to double the sugar tax, although a sugar cane value chain master plan signed in November 2020 to address the challenges facing the industry has placed a moratorium on this until early 2022.
Russell says as things are, the industry is barely sustainable. It contributes R15bn to the economy and employs 20,000 growers, most of them small-scale developing farmers. More than a million livelihoods depend on it.
"With the industry facing an existential crisis we had to draw government's attention to what was happening," he says.
This led to the master plan, which the departments of agriculture and trade and industry helped them to draft.
"It's based on the supposition that unless we diversify away from sugar the industry won't survive. We're looking to a much more diverse value chain from sugar cane."
He concedes the industry may have been slow to respond given the clear warning signs for at least seven years.
"It's taken time to get some traction from government. It's taken time to get the master plan in place and it's going to take time to establish alternative uses for sugar cane."
Time is something they don't have much of, he agrees.
"We have 10 task teams feverishly addressing various aspects."
They believe the sugar cane industry's survival will depend on its ability to produce bioethanol from which to make sustainable aviation fuel airlines will need in order to halve their carbon emission targets by 2050.
But for SA to be a major player in this new industry will require "enormous capital investment to create that processing capacity which doesn't exist at the moment", he says.
Each mill to convert cane into ethanol would cost at least R2bn, with "several" being required to produce enough to make it a viable option.
If most of the 26% of sugar being exported was converted into ethanol instead of sugar and that ethanol was converted into sustainable aviation fuel, then the industry could currently produce 433-million litres, he says.
This would be enough to supply the fuel requirements for OR Tambo and "could turn the industry around".
The sky’s the limit for South Africa’s sugar industry if it finds the aviation biofuels sweet spot
The aim would be to focus on the local market, selling to planes flying to Europe and the US because that is where the carbon taxes are.
"The demand for sustainable aviation fuel is coming from the airlines flying into Europe and America. What they need is 1.8-billion litres, so there's potential for the sugar cane industry instead of shrinking to actually grow."
They haven't signed any off-take agreements yet because there still needs to be a detailed feasibility study they hope to commission by the end of November.
"We're not far enough down the road to provide the necessary assurances.
"We're treating it as our highest priority, pursuing it with everything we have available," Russell says.
"With Europe and America making significant moves to incentivise sustainable aviation fuel production, we are at risk of falling behind if we do not act quickly.
"Now is the time to ensure that we are strapped in and ready to go as the sustainable aviation fuel industry takes off."
What's needed is an enabling regulatory framework for biofuels and sustainable aviation fuels, and improved national greenhouse gas reporting requirements.
"Traceability is obviously of the utmost importance when producing products like this, and we will have to help our small-scale growers to make sure this traceability exists."
This will require maximum government co-operation. He admits its track record is not encouraging but says trade, industry & competition minister Ebrahim Patel has "recognised the opportunity" and urged his officials to get with the plan.
"So there is a sense of urgency."
There's no indication yet where the necessary capital investment will come from, although international airline companies are "very interested" in partnering with them.
The Industrial Development Corporation has also indicated they're "very interested in investing in this new technology", he says.
Meanwhile, the industry has commissioned research from Stellenbosch University into other uses for sugar cane, including pharmaceuticals, waxes, bioplastics and using the fibre for automotive applications.
They're also looking at moving out of sugar cane into other crops, but a lot of them, such as macadamia nuts, have substantial barriers to entry in terms of the infrastructure necessary to support them.
"A lot of our cane growers will either go into other crops or leave the industry altogether because it's just not sustainable."
This would threaten the sugar mills, which would threaten the whole supply chain that keeps the mills open.
He says alternative revenue streams from the supply of aviation fuel won't be in place for at least three years.
Meanwhile, says Russell, a civil engineer before becoming a sugar cane farmer in northern Zululand 20 years ago, "if we don't have the import protection we need, or the commitment from local users of sugar to buy South African sugar ahead of imported sugar, or get an extension of the sugar tax moratorium, then many farmers will not survive".
Why should you only buy local sugar?
— SA Canegrowers (@sa_canegrowers) September 13, 2021
Buying local sugar means putting a superior product in your trolley. The local industry is also a large contributor to rural job creation, economic growth and transformation in the country. pic.twitter.com/aP9uRX2sUn
