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Brazil’s key agribusiness sectors, including soy, cotton, corn, beef, coffee, orange juice, and pulp, alongside insights into the impact of US tariffs.
Highlights include:
FX: We expect the exchange rate to reach BRL 5.55/USD by the end of 2026, pressured by geopolitical tensions abroad plus fiscal and electoral uncertainty at home. Despite the onset of a cutting cycle, high local interest rates will generate some support.
Conflict in the Middle East: The Middle East is the destination for 7% of Brazil´s agricultural exports, led by poultry meat, beef, sugar, corn, and soybeans. The conflict in the region has already led to rising fuel and fertilizer prices.
Weather: Above-average rainfall negatively impacted the soybean harvest and the planting of the second corn crop. For the second half of the year, conditions are expected to favor the development of an El Niño.
Farm Inputs: The conflict in the Middle East is driving up prices for nitrogen fertilizers. Phosphorus is already beginning to show signs of impact from the conflict.
Cane, sugar, and ethanol: The conflict in the Middle East has sparked a rally in NY sugar prices, creating a welcome hedging opportunity for millers. To date, local gasoline prices have risen only modestly in comparison with international price movements.
Soybeans: Soybean prices on the CBOT are being buoyed by geopolitics, but weakening global fundamentals, record Brazilian supply, and rising logistics costs suggest the rally is increasingly vulnerable.
Global fertilizer markets ended Q1 2026 under severe strain. Escalating geopolitical disruption in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed a substantial volume of fertilizers and critical inputs from global trade, triggering an abrupt supply shock that cannot be quickly replaced. The resulting market environment is characterized by tight availability, sharply higher prices, and elevated volatility across major nutrients.
Fertilizer affordability has deteriorated rapidly. Prices for nitrogen and phosphates have risen far faster than agricultural commodity prices, compressing farm margins and accelerating affordability stress. RaboResearch's fertilizer affordability index has moved decisively into negative territory and is expected to remain constrained throughout 2026, with only limited recovery in the second half of the year. This raises the risk of widespread demand destruction as farmers reduce application rates, delay purchases, or shift crop choices.
Nitrogen markets are the most exposed, and phosphate markets are similarly pressured. While potash remains comparatively more balanced, indirect effects from weak affordability in other nutrients are expected to weigh modestly on demand in 2026. Overall, the fertilizer market faces a prolonged period of tight supply, weak affordability, and heightened price risk. Even if geopolitical tensions ease, normalization will be slow. The outlook for 2026 points to continued pressure on farm economics and increased downside risks for global crop production and food price stability.
The World Bank’s food and nutrition security portfolio now covers 90 countries and combines short-term emergency support (such as expanding social protection) with longer-term resilience-building measures like boosting agricultural productivity and promoting climate-smart farming. These interventions are expected to benefit 327 million people by 2030.Examples of ongoing projects include:Supporting small-scale producers in Honduras through market access, improved technologies, and job creation in value chains such as coffee, vegetables, and dairy.
Enhancing food security for vulnerable households in Honduras’ Dry Corridor with nutrition-smart agriculture and community education.
The Food Systems Resilience Program for Eastern and Southern Africa, which strengthens crisis response and long-term resilience.
Projects in Malawi, Madagascar, Burundi, the Sahel region, Central African Republic, Guinea-Bissau, and others that provide seeds, tools, irrigation, cash transfers, and livestock support to boost production and resilience.
The AICCRA project, which has reached nearly 3 million African farmers with climate-smart tools and information, leading to higher yields and incomes.
Additional large-scale initiatives are underway in West Africa, Yemen, Tajikistan, Jordan, Bolivia, Chad, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Egypt, and Tunisia to improve food security, strengthen resilience, and support vulnerable households.In 2022, the World Bank and G7 co-established the Global Alliance for Food Security to coordinate responses to the global hunger crisis, supported by a public Global Food and Nutrition Security Dashboard.A joint statement by the heads of FAO, IMF, World Bank, WFP, and WTO in 2023 emphasised the need for urgent action to rescue hunger hotspots, facilitate trade, engage the private sector, and reform harmful subsidies while balancing short-term relief with long-term resilience.
The World Bank is actively supporting food and nutrition security across 90 countries through a mix of immediate humanitarian aid and longer-term investments in productive, climate-resilient agriculture, aiming to reach 327 million people by 2030.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - 6th April 2025
- Butter: Grade AA closed at $1.79, with the weekly average at $1.7856 (down slightly).
- Cheese: Barrels at $1.5925 and 40-lb blocks at $1.6725. Weekly averages were slightly higher for barrels and steady for blocks.
- Nonfat dry milk: Grade A closed at $1.9725, with the weekly average up to $1.9450.
- Dry whey: Extra grade closed at $0.6875, with the weekly average slightly higher at $0.6888.
- Butter: Retail demand remains strong in the East and Central regions, while the West is more varied. Cream availability is tighter as more is diverted to Class II and III uses. Butter production continues but some plants are not running at full capacity ahead of the holiday weekend.
- Cheese: Production is steady to lighter in several regions as plants prepare for holiday downtime and divert milk to powder. Domestic demand for cheddar is strong, while barrel and curd demand is softer in the Central region. Mozzarella export interest remains robust in the West.
- Fluid milk: Production is steady to stronger with spring flush providing ample volumes in some areas. Class I demand is light due to the upcoming holidays and spring break. Class II and Class IV demand is steady to strong, while Class III spot milk prices range from $7 under to $2 under Class III.
- Dry products: Nonfat dry milk and dry buttermilk prices rose across regions, driven by tight inventories and strong demand. Lactose prices advanced, while whey protein concentrate 34% was slightly softer at the bottom of the range. Dry whole milk and casein prices were mostly steady to higher.
Dairy markets remain firm overall, with strength in nonfat dry milk, butter, and lactose, while cheese and whey show mixed signals. Retail demand is holding up, but production in some categories is easing ahead of the holiday period, and cream availability is tightening.
The quality and consistency of soybean meal in layer diets have a direct and significant impact on egg weight, shell strength, flock health, and overall profitability — far beyond simply looking at the price per ton.Dr. Thomas D’Alfonso, Worldwide Animal Nutrition Focus Area Director at the U.S. Soybean Export Council, emphasised that U.S. soybean meal offers a highly consistent source of essential amino acids and metabolizable energy. This consistency allows nutritionists to formulate diets that better meet the needs of an entire flock, resulting in more uniform egg size and weight distribution.Layer operations are graded and paid based on egg size and quality, not just the number of eggs produced. Grade A large eggs deliver the highest revenue per unit. A consistent, well-balanced diet helps hens reach their genetic potential and produce eggs within the profitable target weight range.Research has shown clear differences: hens fed soybean meal from U.S. Soy produced eggs averaging 65.4 grams, compared to 62.1 grams when fed Brazilian soybean meal. Even small improvements in egg weight and uniformity can add substantial value. For a large operation producing 20,000 tons of feed per year, optimising diets with high-quality soybean meal can contribute as much as $3 million to the bottom line through better feed efficiency and higher revenue from improved egg production and quality.Variability in diet ingredients forces nutritionists to add safety margins, which increases feed costs without improving performance. In contrast, the predictable digestibility and nutrient profile of U.S. soybean meal reduces the need for such margins and supports better gut health, stronger shells, and higher overall egg mass.D’Alfonso stressed that soybean meal from U.S. Soy should be viewed as the foundational ingredient in poultry diets because of its superior amino acid balance and metabolizable energy contribution. Beyond performance, it also offers a sustainability story that layer producers can use when marketing to conscious consumers who want to know how their eggs were produced.
Consistent, high-quality soybean meal — particularly from U.S. Soy — is not just a cost item but a key driver of egg size, shell quality, feed efficiency, and profitability in layer operations. Small improvements in uniformity and weight can deliver significant additional revenue.
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