In May, coffee harvesting progressed across Brazil, supported by favorable weather conditions in both arabica- and conilon-producing regions.
Yields so far remain within the normal range for this period, with no significant issues reported. In the coming days, the forecast indicates continued stable weather, which should help maintain the strong pace of harvesting.
In foreign trade, Brazil exported approximately 3.12m 60kg bags of coffee in April 2026, a volume slightly higher than that recorded in the same month of 2025 (+0.64%) and 1.6% above March 2026. Despite this marginal increase, exports totaled 11.6m bags in the first quarter, a 16% decline compared to the same period last year. However, with the progress of the new crop harvest, the trend is for sales to intensify, with the gradual release of stocks, as prolonged holding may result in product devaluation, since it starts to be priced as old-crop coffee.
In April, arabica and conilon coffee markets showed slight appreciation, with arabica prices rising month-on-month by approximately 1% and conilon by about 1.25%, reflecting a relatively balanced market environment, with short-term price support. May, however, saw a clear divergence between the two: Arabica experienced a sharp drop of 10.9%, indicating a more pronounced deterioration, while conilon posted only a slight decline of 0.4%, remaining practically stable. This behavior highlights the greater resilience of the conilon market. Arabica prices continue to face stronger pressure, especially due to expectations of increased supply associated with the 2026/27 crop.
Scattered rainfall was recorded in some cities in May, but the volumes were not sufficient to disrupt the progress of the harvest. In Guaxupé and Patrocínio, accumulated May rainfall totaled 21mm and 17.7mm, respectively, below the five-year averages of 47mm and 30.4mm. In Alta Floresta d’Oeste and Linhares, May’s accumulated rainfall reached 15mm and 30.9mm, also below the respective historical averages of 59.1mm and 57.1mm.
In some areas of southern Minas Gerais, such as Boa Esperança and Campo do Meio, isolated hail events affected certain coffee farms. However, these impacts were localized and did not compromise overall production in the region. This phenomenon is common in the coffee-producing belt at this time of year, but it generally causes limited damage.
Prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is keeping energy prices elevated, with oil and gas expected to remain higher for longer. These rising costs are feeding through the food value chain, gradually eroding margins and setting the stage for renewed food price inflation across Europe, likely peaking in 2027.The prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is reshaping energy markets, with oil and gas prices now expected to remain elevated well into 2028. Even with a near-term resolution, recovery will be gradual due to damage to critical infrastructure, keeping supply tight.
Higher energy and packaging costs are now feeding through the food value chain and in some cases already eroding food manufacturers’ margins. While hedging may delay the impact, those higher input costs will ultimately drive a renewed cycle of mid- to high-single-digit food price inflation across Europe in 2027.
Already, the “higher for longer” energy environment is weighing on European economies. Revised forecasts point to slower growth, weaker consumption, and higher overall inflation and unemployment, with the full impact expected in 2027.
This may leave consumers limited room to absorb further food price increases. As a result, they are likely to cut back on discretionary spending and become even more price-sensitive in their grocery purchases.
For all players in the food market, it will be a challenging balancing act between increasing prices, maintaining margins, and protecting volumes.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news -8th May 2026
Global milk production growth has begun to slow into Q2 following four consecutive quarters of expansion above 2% across the Big-7 regions. Output growth peaked at 5.2% in Q4 2025, with supplies expected to be 1.5% higher year-on-year in Q2, before flattening in Q3 and declining by 1.6% in Q4. On a full-year basis, milk production is estimated to rise 1% in 2026 and decline slightly in 2027, supporting a rebalancing of global milk supplies after several quarters of strong growth.
The earlier surge in supply has led to generally weaker prices, although trends vary by product. Global Dairy Trade price index increases have been supported mainly by skim milk powder, followed by whole milk powder, while cheese and butter remain below 2025 levels due to adequate supply. Farmer margins are a key focus, with contraction emerging in some regions as milk prices decline, particularly in the EU.
Across most regions, rising input costs are the most pressing concern, with energy, fertilizer, and interest rates driving potential margin pressure into the second half of the year and into 2027. Ongoing Middle East tensions and the Strait of Hormuz closure create uncertainty for oil prices, fertilizer availability, and feed costs, contributing to profitability challenges and the potential for production contraction in later quarters.
Consumer dynamics are also shifting, with food price inflation likely to rise and affect purchasing habits, while the “protein halo” continues to support dairy demand. Overall, higher input costs, margin contraction, and a tenuous milk price situation are expected to be key factors to watch, with demand shifts, geopolitical tensions, and weather risks shaping the outlook as the market seeks balance.
Monthly broiler production in the US for March totalled 4,160 million pounds, up 9.5% from March 2025, according to the USDA's latest Livestock, Dairy and Poultry Outlook.
The increase in production is driven primarily by an 8.3% year-over-year increase in the number of birds slaughtered, but also by a 0.9% increase in average weights. Total broiler production for the first quarter of 2026 is 11,966 million pounds, a 3.7% year-over-year increase.
Projected second-quarter broiler production was revised 50 million pounds higher in the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report (WASDE) to 12,250 million pounds, while third-quarter broiler production was raised 100 million pounds to 12,600 million pounds to reflect growing layer numbers for broiler hatching eggs. Projected fourth-quarter production remained unchanged this month at 12,300 million pounds.
These changes leave broiler production for 2026 at 49,146 million pounds, up 246 million pounds from the April projection and up 2.4% from 2025.
The outlook for broiler production in 2027 is projected at 49,600 million pounds, up 0.9% from the 2026 projection. The increase in production for 2027 is expected to mark the 15th consecutive year of production growth, although this growth rate would be the slowest since 2023.
Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) live cattle futures rose on Thursday for a third straight session, led by firm cash cattle markets and spillover strength from Wall Street equities, Reuters reported, citing traders.
Live cattle futures have narrowed their discount to equivalent cash cattle prices but were still trading below last week's cash cattle trades at $256 to $258 per hundredweight.
Front-month CME June live cattle futures settled up 1.375 cents on Thursday at 251.475 cents per pound, and most-active August cattle closed up 1.175 cents at 242.675 cents a pound. The first notice day for deliveries against the June futures contract was June 8.
"We're still seeing cash trade at a premium to the board, and now that we are in delivery, (futures) should re-converge with where cash is," said Matthew Wiegand, a broker at FuturesOne.
Cash cattle trade was largely inactive on Thursday but traders expected steady to higher cash prices this week.
CME August feeder cattle futures jumped 5.275 cents on Thursday to settle at 359.650 cents per pound.
Meanwhile, US stocks ended sharply higher, with major indexes extending gains after US President Donald Trump said he canceled planned strikes against Iran, and on the eve of the market debut of Elon Musk's SpaceX. Stronger equity markets tend to boost confidence about consumer demand for meat.
The US Department of Agriculture priced choice cuts of beef on Thursday afternoon at $393.21 per cwt, down 8 cents from Wednesday.
"Boxed beef has hung in there. It's still probably not making the (meat) packers any money, but it's enough to keep us going," Wiegand said.
Market players continue to monitor outbreaks of New World screwworm after the first domestic infestation of the parasite in decades was found in a Texas calf last week. The USDA confirmed a total of nine US screwworm cases as of Thursday.
CME lean hog futures closed mixed. July hogs settled down 0.225 cent at 96.625 cents per pound but stayed above Wednesday's six-month low of 95.500 cents. August hogs ended up 0.475 cent at 95.900 cents.
The USDA priced pork carcasses late on Thursday at $94.47 per cwt, down $1.49 from Wednesday.
