Our latest report for Brazilian G&O, detailing farmgate prices, amounts sold, exports, and crush margins for corn and soybeans, as well as regional weather developments.
Ukraine’s accession will integrate a vast agricultural sector into the EU, creating both opportunities and risks for European food and agriculture. Ukraine’s accession to the EU will have significant implications for EU food and agriculture. Despite war-related damage, Ukraine will add a large production base, particularly in grains, oilseeds, and poultry, while remaining less competitive in higher value-added products. Increased supply from Ukraine could put pressure on prices in existing EU markets such as grains, sugar, and poultry, while lower feed costs would benefit EU livestock sectors. Traders and processors could also gain from greater availability of grains and oilseeds.
Ukraine’s entry will expand the EU population by roughly 40 million people – an increase of around 8%. However, in the near term, the limited purchasing power of Ukrainian households will constrain export opportunities. At the same time, increased investment flows into Ukrainian food and agriculture could create opportunities for suppliers of technology, farm inputs, and knowledge. From a strategic perspective, accession could also enhance EU food autonomy, although reducing reliance on imported soybean products would not be simple.
The policy implications are substantial, as Ukraine’s scale will likely make the current hectare-based CAP model unsustainable, thereby triggering reforms and transition measures. Overall, Ukraine’s accession to the EU will not be determined solely by its impact on food and agriculture; these effects will likely be weighed against broader considerations, including defense, critical minerals, and geopolitics.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news -15th June 2026
Cattle futures had a strong bullish run with August live cattle climbing $5.95 to $249.20 for a four-week high and August feeders up $5.325 to $366.875 for a five-week high, marking four higher closes out of the past five sessions. Market support is coming from the New World Screwworm situation, which USDA APHIS still lists at 12 detected cases in Texas and New Mexico, while technical signals have improved and drawn chart-based traders back to long positions. Cash cattle trade has been very light at around $354, down from last week’s average of $256.08.USDA export sales showed beef net sales at 10,400 MT, down 45% week-on-week, with exports of 13,000 MT to Japan, South Korea and Mexico leading. Pork net sales hit a marketing-year low at 16,100 MT, down 31%, with exports of 30,000 MT mostly to Mexico, Japan and China.To fight NWS, USDA approved 40 projects worth about $105 million to expand surveillance, prevention and sterile fly technology, including drones, better wound detection and more efficient sterile fly production. Only 11 active cases remain, with no wildlife infections or fly-trap detections, but officials stress the threat is ongoing given cases in Mexico and the vulnerability of the already low US cattle herd.Trade tensions surfaced as the EU seeks a compromise with Brazil over a planned September ban on Brazilian beef due to antimicrobial-use standards, a dispute that could complicate the new Mercosur-EU deal just weeks after its provisional start. Brazil, the world’s largest beef exporter, wants to resolve it while Europe faces pressure from farmers to apply strict import rules.Domestically, JBS announced it will close a 1,700-worker plant in Souderton, Pennsylvania and a smaller Memphis packaging plant due to tight cattle supplies, while still investing $150 million in its larger Cactus, Texas beef plant. Tight US cattle numbers are driving record beef imports to fill lean-grinding demand, but record fed and feeder cattle prices suggest domestic production isn’t being replaced outright. Instead, imports are filling the hamburger trimmings gap while US producers supply premium grain-fed beef.USDA also issued a directive to restore grazing on National Forest lands to support ranchers and multiple-use management, and the weekly dairy report showed butter averaging $1.6665, cheese barrels up at $1.4540, and nonfat dry milk falling to $1.8695, with milk supplies tightening in the East due to heat and strong Class II cream demand for ice cream.
A super El Niño is likely to bring heat and dryness to much of Asia and heavy rains to the Americas in the coming months, threatening food output after past events like 2015-16 and 1997-98 caused crop losses and billions in damage. But Reuters reports the fallout may be limited this time because global food inventories are near record levels and many key growing regions expect near-normal conditions. FAO economist Shirley Mustafa said high stocks of rice and other cereals should cushion the impact. USDA forecasts global wheat stocks at 279.95 million tons by July 1, a five-year high, with Russia and other Northern Hemisphere producers harvesting bumper crops, though US wheat is struggling with drought. Rice reserves are also at an all-time high of 196.16 million tons, with India holding about five times its target and unlikely to restrict exports as it did in past El Niños, while Indonesia has record stockpiles and Thailand’s reservoirs are at decade highs. Corn inventories are projected at 303.4 million tons by September and soybeans at 125.5 million tons, just below last year’s record, which has pushed Chicago corn, soybeans and wheat to multi-month lows.El Niño’s impact on China, the Black Sea and Europe is expected to be less severe since Europe’s weather system is geographically distant, though links can be unpredictable. In top palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia, rainfall is still supporting crops and newer, more drought-resistant palm varieties are better adapted since 1997-98. The main risk now may be policy reactions, as governments in past El Niños have imposed export curbs when supply fears rise. Much will depend on how importers buy and exporters keep supply lines open.
