Here are the main highlights for some of Australia’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report covers the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Climate: El Niño has been officially declared, increasing the risk of below-average spring rainfall. Australia's rainfall outlook remains challenging, and June’s above-average temperatures are already influencing crop development. Beef: Cattle prices have recovered from the slump in April and May, pushing to new year highs with finished cattle (heavy steers and cows) exceeding ten-year highs. The strong export market continues, although there remains some uncertainty around the impact of Chinese quotas that are starting to come into play. Wool: Wool prices finished the year strong, up 61% compared to last year. The ongoing limited supplies continue to support the market with wool tested volumes down 9% for the year. Sugar: Near-term sugar prices remain pressured by surplus supply, but rising El Niño risks point to tighter markets ahead, supporting future prices and offering cautious upside for Australian growers. Consumer foods: Consumer confidence among Australian households has improved in recent weeks but remains weak overall. Meanwhile, food inflation picked up in May (3.35%), driven by higher prices in the meat and dairy categories. Interest rate and FX: As foreshadowed last month, the RBA left the cash rate unchanged in June and market expectations of further rate hikes have diminished further. Longer-term interest rates have also fallen, and the Australian dollar has weakened substantially against the USD in response. Oil and freight: Oil prices fell more than 20% in June following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US that saw tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rise significantly. Consequently, RaboResearch has reduced its forecasts for oil prices.
Brazil’s key agribusiness sectors, including soy, cotton, corn, beef, coffee, orange juice, and pulp, alongside insights into the impact of US tariffs.
Highlights include:
FX: We expect the US dollar to reach BRL 5.35 by the end of 2026, mainly due to geopolitical risks, fiscal and election-related uncertainties, and US interest rates. However, the depreciation of the Brazilian real should be limited.
Tariffs: The US has proposed new tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act, targeting Brazil and other countries. While most Brazilian exports are likely to remain exempt, some key commodities like sugar, ethanol, and soluble coffee, could be impacted.
Weather: A new round of forecasts from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirms El Niño starting in July 2026, with the phenomenon strengthening through the Southern Hemisphere summer.
Farm inputs: The drop in fertilizer imports in April and May already reflects higher fertilizer prices following the start of the conflict in the Middle East.
Cane, sugar, and ethanol: As milling activity moves into top gear, ethanol prices have fallen sharply. The pump price ratio relative to gasoline is now below 60% in São Paulo state, which should support ethanol sales in Q3 2026.
Coffee: Expectations are that a large Brazilian crop will add pressure to global prices, as weather conditions have been favorable for crop development.
Soybeans: Brazilian soybean exports increased by 7% YOY from January to May 2026, according to SECEX (the Brazilian Foreign Trade Secretariat), and are expected to reach 113m metric tons for the full year, an increase of 4m metric tons.
Corn: Compared to the previous report, RaboResearch has revised its corn production estimate upward by 1m metric tons, now projecting a total output of 138m metric tons.
Cotton: Regarding the 2025/26 crop, we expect that the country will register the second-largest lint production in history, estimated at around 4m metric tons.
Beef: The rapid filling of the Chinese quota is likely to pressure beef shipments, with the futures market signaling downward pressure on fed cattle prices starting in Q3 2026.
Orange juice: Despite a smaller crop ahead, weak demand remains a barrier for higher prices as inventories recover.
Dairy: We expect farmgate milk prices to continue recovering in Q3 as supply slows further. Imports are likely to remain elevated during Q3, supported by higher domestic prices.
Pulp: A more balanced supply-demand situation, combined with additional supply cuts, is expected to support a gradual price recovery beginning in late 2026.
World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news -29th June 2026
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Here are the main highlights for some of New Zealand’s key commodities and economic influences this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
Dairy: New Zealand production has soared to new levels in 2025/26 – but is adding to the ample supply narrative that has been building in recent weeks, pressuring dairy commodity prices.
Beef: Farmgate beef prices remain firm as supply catches up and export volumes surge, while strong global demand, particularly from the US, underpins returns and supports a positive winter outlook.
Sheep: Sheepmeat farmgate prices continue to strengthen, supported by robust export demand. Supply catches up in total volumes and store/saleyard markets show strength, with confidence building ahead of the new season.
Farm inputs: At the end of the day, farm input markets remain divided, with nitrogen prices easing as supply normalises, while phosphates and agrochemicals continue to face support from elevated feedstock and intermediary costs.
Interest rate and FX: The Q1 national accounts confirmed that the New Zealand economy grew more than expected in the year to March, and recent data points to sustained economic recovery. RaboResearch expects the RBNZ to begin raising the OCR in July.
Oil and freight: Oil prices fell more than 20% in June following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US that saw tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rise significantly. Consequently, RaboResearch has reduced its forecasts for oil prices.
Beef: Farmgate beef prices remain firm as supply catches up and export volumes surge, while strong global demand, particularly from the US, underpins returns and supports a positive winter outlook.
Sheep: Sheepmeat farmgate prices continue to strengthen, supported by robust export demand. Supply catches up in total volumes and store/saleyard markets show strength, with confidence building ahead of the new season.
Farm inputs: At the end of the day, farm input markets remain divided, with nitrogen prices easing as supply normalises, while phosphates and agrochemicals continue to face support from elevated feedstock and intermediary costs.
Interest rate and FX: The Q1 national accounts confirmed that the New Zealand economy grew more than expected in the year to March, and recent data points to sustained economic recovery. RaboResearch expects the RBNZ to begin raising the OCR in July.
Oil and freight: Oil prices fell more than 20% in June following the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding between Iran and the US that saw tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rise significantly. Consequently, RaboResearch has reduced its forecasts for oil prices.
USDA’s latest weekly and monthly data show stronger export demand for US beef, mixed pork momentum, and ongoing pressure on cattle markets from tight supplies and New World screwworm containment. Beef and pork trade
US beef net sales for 2026 jumped to 21,300 MT, up 88% from the prior 4-week average, led by South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Mexico and Hong Kong. Exports held steady at 13,000 MT. The USDA also corrected prior export figures down 2,300 MT due to reporting errors. US pork net sales rose 63% week-over-week to 26,200 MT for 2026, with Mexico, Japan and South Korea the main buyers, though that was still 6% below the 4-week average. Pork exports hit 32,000 MT, up 7% on the week, with Mexico taking nearly half. A small 200 MT sale for 2027 went to Australia. Cattle futures and cash trade
Futures saw mild profit-taking midweek, with August live cattle down 60 cents to $241.825 and August feeders down 45 cents to $364.15. Cash cattle traded very lightly around $256.00, versus $259.34 last week. Supplies remain tight and packers are cutting slaughter on weak margins. Heat stress and NWS concerns are weighing on sentiment, though rains may help pastures in Nebraska, Iowa and South Dakota. New World screwworm
APHIS now lists 31 confirmed US cases, with 9 inactive and 21 active. New detections in Uvalde and Pecos counties expanded the map, but more cases moving to inactive status shows treatment is working, even as quarantine zones stay in place. The US-Mexico sterile fly plant in Metapa, Chiapas opened with capacity for up to 100 million flies per week. USDA says it has spent $1.3 billion, expanded staff 1,000% and is executing a five-point plan. Officials stress eradication depends on sustained sterile fly releases and surveillance, not just resolving individual cases. Policy and capacity
USDA announced a $500 million SPUR program to support independent beef processors amid historically low cattle numbers and foreign packer ownership. CME plans to launch 90% and 50% lean beef trim futures on July 20 to help manage hamburger ingredient risk. Other protein and dairy notes
Mexico’s partial reopening for US pork offal eased disruption, but Iowa and Texas remain restricted, costing exporters an estimated $7 million per week at the peak. Brazil faces a Sept. 3 EU deadline for new antimicrobial certification to keep beef access, but no farms are certified yet, raising risk of near-term disruption. The US hog herd was 73.66 million head as of June 1, slightly below expectations, with breeding stock down 1.2%. Cold storage showed beef stocks down only 2 million pounds in May versus an 18 million-pound seasonal average, and pork stocks up slightly, suggesting softer demand. Dairy markets were mixed: butter and cheese demand was steady to strong in places, fluid milk production mixed by region, and most dry product prices were steady to lower. Organic milk utilization fell slightly year-over-year in May. Overall, beef exports are firming on Asian demand while cattle remain supply-constrained and NWS is still a dynamic risk. Pork exports are led by Mexico but offal access issues persist, and dairy is largely balanced with regional variation.
Download the latest brief on rising food insecurity
Global fertilizer markets have faced pressure since early 2026 and in the first five months of 2026, fertilizer prices increased by 35 percent compared to the same period last year. Despite easing in the past weeks, fertilizer markets have not fully stabilized and the effects of reduced applications earlier in the season are likely to become visible only later in harvest outcomes.
There is a 61 to 87 percent probability of El Niño emerging by mid-2026 and persisting into 2027. If realized, rice output could fall by 20 to 50 percent in affected regions, with South Asia, Southern Africa, and parts of East Asia most exposed, further deepening food insecurity in already vulnerable countries
Since the last update, the agricultural, cereal, and export prices indices have decreased by 6, 8, and 7 percent, respectively. Maize and wheat prices, which closed 15 and 13 percent lower, respectively, have driven the decrease in the cereal price index. Rice prices closed 9 percent higher. On a year-on-year basis, the average price for maize is 1 percent lower, whereas rice and wheat prices are 1 and 8 percent higher, respectively. Maize, wheat, and rice prices are 6, 4, and 3 percent higher, respectively, than in January 2020.
Domestic food price inflation remained moderately high between April and May 2026. Data for this period indicates a slight deterioration in low-income countries, resulting in an increase in the share of countries with food inflation above 5 percent (from 40.0 percent to 45.0 percent). On the other hand, conditions improved in lower-middle-income countries (from 40.8 percent to 36.7 percent), upper-middle-income countries (from 34.0 percent to 29.8 percent), and high-income countries (from 6.8 percent to 5.1 percent) (Figure 2a). Regionally, food inflation pressures increased in Latin America and the Caribbean and South Asia, eased in Europe and Central Asia, and remained uneven across Africa, with persistently high levels in parts of Eastern and Southern Africa. In the latest quarterly data, real food prices outpaced headline inflation in about 14 percent of the 169 countries analyzed. This was particularly the case among lower-middle-income countries, where roughly one in six countries recorded positive real food inflation.
