Global crop margin recovery is expected to remain delayed and uneven through 2027.
Ample supplies following the 2019 to 2023 upswing should limit sustained price gains, while fertilizer and crop protection costs rise again. This combination leaves limited scope for broad-based improvement in profitability.
Outcomes will diverge by crop and region. Argentina’s soybean margins should improve, but corn margins remain exposed to higher fertilizer costs and taxation. Brazil retains comparatively healthy operating margins for soy and corn, although high interest rates, elevated debt, and constrained cash flow are driving up delinquencies. The US remains the most vulnerable major market, with corn margins near breakeven on an operating basis and negative on a full-cost basis. European crop margins could recover from their 2026 trough if yields normalize.
The recovery path will depend on multiple factors including weather, geopolitics, and crop fundamentals. El Niño, which is expected to continue into the first half of 2027, increases production uncertainty. Meanwhile, Middle East tensions keep fertilizer markets firm, and abundant global agri commodity supplies mean that disruptions are more likely to trigger short-lived price spikes than a sustained rally. Selected soybean markets may stabilize or improve, but a synchronized global recovery remains unlikely in 2027.
The World Bank has approved US$500 million in financing to help Mexico better prepare for and respond more quickly to natural disasters, the effects of climate change, and public health emergencies. This is the first time the country has accessed a Catastrophe Deferred Drawdown Option (Cat DDO), an instrument that gives the Government quick access to resources when an emergency occurs.Mexico is one of the countries most exposed to hurricanes, floods, droughts, and earthquakes. A significant share of its territory and population is exposed to these risks. The country has a strong civil protection and emergency response system, and this support seeks to reinforce public policies that increase prevention and help reduce damage before it occurs.
Brazilian egg exports, including fresh and processed products, totalled 2,686 tonnes in September, up 29.4% from 2,076 tonnes in the same month of 2025, according to the Brazilian Animal Protein Association (ABPA). Revenue rose 6% to $5.866 million from $5.536 million.From January to September, exports reached 22,669 tonnes, down 34.1% from 34,378 tonnes a year earlier. Revenue fell 38.4% to $49.769 million from $80.832 million.ABPA said the cumulative comparison is skewed by US purchases in 2025, when avian influenza affected domestic supply there. Between January and September of last year, the US imported 19,515 tonnes of Brazilian eggs, compared with 168 tonnes in the same period of 2026. Excluding the US in both periods, exports grew 51.4%, from 14,863 tonnes to 22,501 tonnes.Chile was the main destination in September with 1,204 tonnes, up 201.3% from 400 tonnes. Japan followed with 351 tonnes (down 49.3% from 692 tonnes), then Ecuador with 300 tonnes, which had no shipments in September 2025. Mexico took 244 tonnes (down 2.6% from 251 tonnes) and Sierra Leone 135 tonnes, also with no shipments a year earlier.
“The growth recorded in September and the expansion of sales to markets such as Chile and Ecuador demonstrate the diversification of the destinations of Brazilian eggs," said ABPA president Ricardo Santin. "The accumulated retraction results essentially from the exceptionality of purchases made by the United States in 2025."
"When we remove this effect from the comparison, we observe growth of more than 50%, which confirms the consistent advance of the international presence of the Brazilian product," he added.
