South Africa’s heavy reliance on imported crude oil and refined petroleum products leaves the country — and its agriculture sector — highly exposed to global fuel price shocks, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (particularly the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel), a volatile rand, and limited domestic control over energy costs.
Global oil prices have surged (Brent crude around $100–106/barrel, with earlier peaks near $120 amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions), driving under-recoveries and pushing domestic prices higher. The rand's weakening (around R16.80–17 to the USD) amplifies import costs.The ripple effects hit agriculture hard: fuel is a major input for tractors, irrigation pumps, harvesters, transport of produce/livestock, and logistics from farms to markets. Road freight dominates goods movement in South Africa, and transporters often pass on costs through rate increases (or absorb them temporarily, straining cash flow). This raises overall food production and distribution expenses, contributing to higher consumer prices and squeezed farm margins amid already low commodity values.
Many South Africans feel the cost of living is excessively high, with everyday expenses outpacing wage growth, stagnant incomes, high unemployment, and ongoing economic pressures making it difficult for millions to afford basics like food, housing, transport, electricity, and water.In early 2026, headline inflation eased to around 3.5% (January figures), but this masks persistent pain in key areas:
- Food prices remain elevated, especially meat (up significantly due to the ongoing foot-and-mouth disease crisis, declared a national disaster), while transport and electricity/water tariffs rise faster than overall inflation.
- Fuel prices have surged due to global oil volatility from the Middle East conflict, with major hikes projected for April 2026 (potentially +R4+ per litre for petrol in some scenarios), pushing up transport, delivery, and grocery costs further.
- Household budgets are stretched thin, with low-income families spending 40%+ of income on necessities and often underspending on nutritious food by 50% or more.
The general fuel levy (not ring-fenced solely for roads, treated as general Treasury revenue). Farmers and certain users (e.g., diesel for agriculture/shipping) can reclaim portions via SARS, but broader relief options include temporarily freezing levy increases (as in 2022 during the Russia-Ukraine war, when a R1.50/l reduction was implemented). Kelly calls for reviewing the Basic Fuel Price methodology and Regulatory Accounting System (RAC) to ease burdens and redirect funds toward self-sufficiency infrastructure.
Without urgent shifts toward domestic production, renewables, and levy reforms, South Africa risks prolonged exposure to international volatility, with agriculture — a key economic driver — bearing significant indirect costs through elevated transport, input, and food inflation pressures. The piece urges strategic investment to build resilience and reduce dependence on volatile global markets.
South Africans feel the pinch at the shops every day, even though official figures from the government and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) describe headline inflation as relatively low and "under control." Let's break down why it feels like food prices are rising "by the day," despite what the stats say.The latest official data (from Statistics South Africa, released mid-February 2026 for January) shows:
- Headline CPI inflation eased to 3.5% year-on-year in January 2026 (down from 3.6% in December 2025).
- Food and non-alcoholic beverages inflation stayed steady at 4.4% year-on-year — higher than the overall rate but not skyrocketing.
- Meat prices are the big culprit right now — up sharply at 13.5% year-on-year in January (highest since late 2017), driven heavily by beef surges (e.g., steak +31%, mince +28%). The massive foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak (national disaster since early 2026) has disrupted livestock markets, caused export bans, forced higher slaughter rates in some areas, and pushed up domestic prices. This hits hard because meat is a key part of many households' budgets.
- Inflation is a rate, not absolute prices — 4.4% means prices are rising slower than before, but they’re still going up (not falling). If something cost R100 last year, it's now ~R104.40 — small monthly jumps add up, especially on essentials.
- Uneven impacts — While grains/fruits/veggies ease, meat, transport (tied to fuel hikes from Middle East conflict), and utilities keep pushing costs. The "basket" average hides pain in specific items people buy weekly.
- Household reality — For lower-income families, food takes up 40–60% of budgets, so even moderate inflation feels brutal. Wages (minimum wage up to R30.23/hour in 2026) often lag, and unemployment remains high (32–42% including discouraged workers).
Nobody's "doing it on purpose" in a conspiracy sense, but structural issues (disease outbreaks, import dependence, transport/logistics costs, and retail dynamics) combine to make groceries feel relentlessly expensive. Relief might come if FMD is contained quickly (via vaccinations) and harvests stay strong — but for now, the disconnect between "low inflation" headlines and shop reality is very real for millions. Hang in there; many are in the same boat, pushing for better support like targeted subsidies or stronger local production.
For years we and other South Africans have stopped trusting the official figures coming from the government, the South African Reserve Bank, and other institutions.This growing distrust stems from a persistent gap between the published statistics — which often show moderate or controlled inflation — and the everyday reality people experience at the shops, where prices for essentials like food, fuel, electricity, and transport seem to keep rising steadily. Many feel that the numbers no longer reflect their lived experience, leading to widespread scepticism about how inflation, economic growth, and cost-of-living data are presented and calculated.
Want to join our popular weekly viewpoint? Contact us at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.! You can make your own Viewpoint. - Our Professional civilized approach to your option is respected.
Every week, our flagship Viewpoint article is now shared with 33 international media houses across continents. These partners translate and publish the content in 12 international languages, putting South Africa's farming stories, challenges and triumphs in front of thousands of readers worldwide.
DISCLAIMER
The views and opinions expressed in this program are those of the writers and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of any entities they represent. The information contained in this website is for general information purposes only. The information is provided by CRA and while we endeavour to keep the information up to date and correct, we make no representations or warranties of any kind, express or implied, about the completeness, accuracy, reliability, suitability or availability with respect to the website or the information, products, services, or related graphics contained on the website for any purpose. Any reliance you place on such information is therefore strictly at your own risk.
