Agriculture is at a critical turning point. Following the recent COP30 and G20 summits, farmers worldwide are being asked to produce more food to meet rising global demand while simultaneously cutting greenhouse gas emissions, protecting ecosystems, and remaining profitable. This challenge comes at a time when agricultural productivity growth is slowing in many regions.The 2025 Global Agricultural Productivity (GAP) Report highlights the seriousness of this slowdown.
Global Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth — the key measure of how efficiently land, labour, capital, and other resources are converted into agricultural output — is currently rising at only 0.76% per year. This is roughly one-third of the 2% annual growth needed to sustainably meet future demand for food, biofuels, and industrial products.Demand for agricultural products is expected to grow by more than 1% per year through 2031, driven by population and income increases. When productivity stalls, farmers often respond by expanding into new land or using more inputs such as fertiliser and water. These approaches raise costs, contribute to land degradation, and increase emissions.
In sub-Saharan Africa, for example, two-thirds of recent agricultural output growth has come from bringing new land into production rather than from efficiency gains. In the United States, TFP growth has slowed dramatically — from 1.5% per year in the 1990s to just 0.19% between 2014 and 2023 — while China has achieved 1.9% annual growth through strong public investment in agricultural research and development.The consequences are far-reaching: shrinking farm profits, higher food prices for consumers, and greater difficulty in meeting climate goals.
To better understand why productivity is plateauing, the 2025 GAP Report introduces the TFP Growth Frontier Model. This framework divides agricultural progress into four technological domains:
- Extensification — expanding land use to increase output.
- Input intensification — using more fertiliser, better seeds, irrigation, and machinery to raise yields.
- Efficiency optimisation — applying precision agriculture, digital tools, and gene editing to make every input work better.
- Systems integration — connecting farming with broader ecological and social systems for long-term resilience and sustainability.
The report proposes four practical strategies:
- Scale adoption through bundled solutions — Combine new technologies with financing, training, infrastructure, and supportive policies so they actually reach farmers and fit local conditions.
- Push the frontiers through sustained R&D — Increase public and private investment in research to develop the next generation of tools, remembering that benefits from R&D often take 30 years to fully appear.
- Facilitate smooth transitions between domains with better regulations, digital infrastructure, and extension services.
- Enable leapfrogging — Allow countries with good digital access and financing to skip older stages and adopt advanced climate-smart and digital solutions directly.
South African agriculture is also at a critical turning point in 2026. Farmers are under growing pressure to produce more food to support national food security, create rural jobs and drive exports, while dealing with slower productivity growth, increasing climate risks, high input costs and the urgent need to lower their environmental footprint.Global agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth — the key measure of how efficiently land, labour, capital and other resources are turned into output — has slowed to just 0.76% per year worldwide.
In sub-Saharan Africa, including South Africa, the figure is even lower at around 0.38% per year. Much of the recent growth in output has come from simply bringing more land into production or using more inputs, rather than from genuine efficiency gains. This pattern creates long-term risks for sustainability, farm profitability and the country’s ability to compete internationally.
South African farmers face several tough challenges. Climate variability and water stress bring erratic rainfall, droughts and floods that make planning difficult, especially on rain-fed farms. Input costs for fertiliser, fuel, diesel and electricity remain high and continue to squeeze margins. Animal disease outbreaks, such as foot-and-mouth disease in cattle and African swine fever in pigs, have caused major market disruptions and financial losses in the livestock sector. Poor infrastructure, unreliable electricity and inefficient ports raise costs and limit export opportunities.
Land reform and transformation remain complex policy issues, with slow progress on unresolved claims and the need to support new and emerging farmers without harming commercial production. Biosecurity concerns, highlighted by diseases like Goss’s wilt in maize, underline the importance of clean equipment and strong preventative practices. Despite these pressures, the sector shows real resilience and encouraging signs of progress. Recent seasons have delivered strong field crop harvests, especially of maize and soybeans, thanks to better rainfall, while agricultural exports reached record levels in 2025. There is also growing momentum in technology adoption.
A 2025 national survey of field crop farmers found that 43% have fully adopted precision agriculture practices and another 51% have adopted them partially — far higher uptake than previously reported. Farmers are using tools such as yield mapping, soil sampling, variable-rate applications, drones and sensors to improve efficiency, cut input costs and build climate resilience, particularly in the maize triangle and among larger commercial operations.
To move forward successfully, South Africa needs focused action. Reviving productivity growth will require sustained investment in agricultural research and development, better extension services and wider use of digital tools and improved varieties. Strengthening biosecurity and animal health programmes, including the national foot-and-mouth disease vaccination drive, is essential.
Better water management, soil health practices and climate-smart approaches must be scaled up. Inclusive land reform needs proper support — skills development, finance and mentoring — so that new farmers can succeed. Finally, improvements in infrastructure, logistics and market access will help reduce costs and unlock more export opportunities. Agriculture remains one of South Africa’s most important sectors for jobs, rural development and foreign earnings. The policy choices, investments and partnerships made in 2026 between government, farmers and industry will decide whether the sector can meet rising demands in a sustainable and profitable way.
South African agriculture stands at a crossroads. Continued challenges could deepen vulnerabilities, but targeted reforms, innovation and faster adoption of precision technologies could unlock stronger, more resilient growth that benefits farmers, rural communities and the entire country.
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