Total wine production climbed to an estimated 1.13 billion litres – the equivalent of 126 million nine-litre cases – representing a 9% increase on last year. Production, however, was still 7% (89 million litres) below the decade average.
Red wine led the recovery, with output rising 15%, compared with a 2% increase in white wine. Red varieties regained their position as the dominant category, accounting for 52% of all wine made, after slipping behind white wine in 2023–24. The difference in volume between red and white remained narrow – the second-smallest since 2014–15.
Output outstrips sales
Total sales in 2024–25 were largely unchanged at 1.08 billion litres (120 million cases). Exports represented 59% of all sales, up one percentage point year-on-year, while domestic sales held at 41%.
For the first time in three years, production exceeded sales, leaving a surplus of around 52 million litres, or 6 million cases.
Australia’s national wine inventory rose to 2.06 billion litres as at 30 June 2025 – 5% higher than both the previous year and the 10-year average (1.96 billion litres). The stock-to-sales ratio (SSR) increased by 4% to 1.9, placing it 15% above its long-term average of 1.66. On current sales, this equates to 262 million litres of excess wine above what would be expected for a balanced market.
White wine stocks showed particular pressure; the white wine SSR jumped 19% to 1.59, also 15% above its 10-year norm, driven by falling domestic and export sales.
Production pressures
Exports grew 3% to 638m litres, supported by a significant rebound in shipments to mainland China. Exports to China rose by 53m litres to 85m litres over the latest 12-month period.
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Domestic sales fell 3% to 443m litres, sitting 7% below the decade average. Furthermore, total revenue to producers reached $6.02bn in 2024–25, a 5% annual increase, helped by a 13% rise in export value.
The pressure on producers has already prompted major restructuring within the industry. Treasury Wine Estates, Australia’s biggest producer, has been forced to write down the value of its business in the United States by some US$450 million due to the continuing malaise in demand, especially for commodity wines. In a statement to the Australian stock market it said that it will write down the goodwill value of its US assets worth some A$687m in its interim results in February and adopt more “conservative” estimates of growth.
Meanwhile, Vinarchy, Australia’s second-largest wine company, has launched a wide-ranging review of its grape needs and plans to axe around 60 brands over the next two years. Chief executive Danny Celoni said the company must streamline its operations, adding that Vinarchy would concentrate on its globally recognised labels Hardys, Jacob’s Creek and Campo Viejo.
The global picture
Wine Australia warned that the global environment has deteriorated over the past year. Worldwide consumption fell to 21.4 billion litres in 2024 and is expected to decline further in 2025, remaining consistently below global production.
Early forecasts from the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV) show global wine output rising 3% in 2025 – low by historical standards but still higher than forecast consumption.
The report also highlighted structural issues within the domestic sector. Over recent vintages, Australia has avoided larger surpluses only through short-term reductions in crush size, rather than permanent vineyard removal.
Without significant cuts to vineyard area, analysts warn that grape prices are unlikely to recover, and wine prices will remain under pressure while both Australia and global markets grapple with excess supply.
Wine Australia stressed that accurate tracking of vineyard area by variety and region is now critical for restoring long-term balance and sustainability in the sector.
