The current season is characterised by heavy snow that started to occur already in June over parts of the Western Cape. It was followed by some of the heaviest snow falls in decades in the first week of July, especially in the Ceres area. The spatial footprint started to move north-east and from 19 to 21 September very heavy snow occurred over the Eastern Cape, Drakensberg mountains and adjacent parts of the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal.
Snow is not uncommon for this time of the year and heavy falls of snow were reported as late as November in the past. In 1970, heavy falls of snow were reported as late as 6 and 7 December but it is an about one in ten-year occurrence for heavy falls of snow after the middle of September. Snow was reported in the past decade for the spring months of 2016, 2017 and 2018 for the Drakensberg and adjacent areas. The snow dates in 2016 were 17 and 18 September as well as 2 to 4 October; in 2017 snow occurred on several dates, 4 and 5 October, 10 October, 26 October as well as 16 and 27 November and in 2018 from 3 to 4 October.
Good falls of rain also occurred on 16 and 17 September this year over parts of the Free State, southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal as well as northern parts of the Eastern Cape. Falls of rain of between 75mm and 90mm occurred over the southern Free State with more than 20mm over the western and eastern Free State but the bulk of the Summer Grain Area received insignificant rain. It is estimated that only about 5% of the Summer Grain Area received more than 20mm.
REPORT
General The current season is characterised by heavy snow that started to occur already in June over parts of the Western Cape. It was followed by some of the heaviest snow falls in decades in the first week of July, especially in the Ceres area. The spatial footprint started to move north-east and from 19 to 21 September very heavy snow occurred over the Eastern Cape, Drakensberg mountains and adjacent parts of the Free State and KwaZulu-Natal. Snow is not uncommon for this time of the year and heavy falls of snow were reported as late as November in the past.
SIn 1970, heavy falls of snow were reported as late as 6 and 7 December but it is an about one in ten-year occurrence for heavy falls of snow after the middle of September. Snow was reported in the past decade for the spring months of 2016, 2017 and 2018 for the Drakensberg and adjacent areas. The snow dates in 2016 were 17 and 18 September as well as 2 to 4 October; in 2017 snow occurred on several dates, 4 and 5 October, 10 October, 26 October as well as 16 and 27 November and in 2018 from 3 to 4 October.
Good falls of rain also occurred on 16 and 17 September this year over parts of the Free State, southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal as well as northern parts of the Eastern Cape. Falls of rain of between 75mm and 90mm occurred over the southern Free State with more than 20mm over the western and eastern Free State but the bulk of the Summer Grain Area received insignificant rain. It is estimated that only about 5% of the Summer Grain Area received more than 20mm.
ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and Indian Ocean The anticipated La Nina event is still not developing according to initial forecasts although sea surface temperatures in the Nino areas are just below average and still in the neutral range.
The important Nino area reached the 0.5°C cooler than normal limit in the last week of September for the first time since early 2023. It is not yet settled as La Nina and changes can still take place, but it can be regarded as the first indication of La Nina development. There are also indications that cooler water from deeper layers beneath the Nino areas now started to migrate towards the surface. There is an 80% probability that La Nina will develop in the next two months although a weak to moderate event.
The probability for El Nino development is about 0% with a 20% probability that La Nina levels will not be reached, and that neutral conditions will continue. With regards to the Indian Ocean (especially closer to the coast of Africa) is the outlook that sea surface temperatures will be slightly below average but still in the neutral range. Surface temperatures may be still warm enough to induce tropical cyclones and strong low-pressure systems that can pose a risk for drier spells in the second part of summer.
Rainfall and frost outlook (October to March 2025) Summer Rainfall Area Northern and Northwestern Limpopo as well as north-eastern parts of Northwest Province –Average to below average rainfall until the end of October. Average to above average from November to February with a drier spell in March/April. –The risk for severe frost expired but there is a very high risk for strong winds and stormy conditions with the start of the rainy season.
Central to southern Limpopo and north-eastern parts of Mpumalanga –Average to below average rainfall until the end of October; average to above average from November; average to below average from February to March. –Very small risk for further frost. –High risk for stormy conditions with the start of the rainy season. Gauteng, adjacent parts of Northwest, central to south-western parts of Mpumalanga –Average to below average rainfall until the middle to end of October; average to above average from the end of October to January; average to below average for February and March. –Low risk for further severe frost.
Stormy conditions with the start of the rainy season from October to January. Central to northern parts of KwaZulu-Natal (interior) and adjacent parts of Mpumalanga –Average to above average rainfall from October to December; average to below average from January to March. –Last date of frost:
First week of October. Southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal (interior); north-eastern parts of the Eastern Cape and south –Average to above average rainfall from November to January; average to below average for February and March. –Last date of frost:
Second week of October. –Stormy conditions with the start of the rainy season from October to January. Central to western parts of the Free State; Northwest Province (western and southern parts), north-eastern parts of the Northern Cape –Average to below average rainfall for October and first part of November; average to above average from the second part of November until March. –Last date of frost:
Middle of October. –Stormy conditions with the start of the rainy season from October to January. Kalahari, south-eastern parts of the Northern Cape and adjacent parts of the Eastern Cape –• Average to below average rainfall until the end of November; Average to above average from December to January and becoming above average for February and March. –•
Last date of frost: Middle of October. South western parts of the Northern Cape and adjacent interior of the Western Cape –Average to below average rainfall from about October but if La Nina development is strong enough, it can result in some rain in the second part of summer. –Last date of frost: Second week of October and even later in the Ceres area. Central to eastern parts of the Eastern Cape and Garden Route –Average to above average rainfall until October; about average from November to March. –
Last date of frost: First week of October. Southern Cape and Rûens –Average to above average rainfall until about the middle of October but average for the summer. –Last date of frost: Very small risk for further frost although temperatures will remain below average. Winelands and Swartland –Average to below average from October to January. –Last date of frost: Risk for frost in the second week of October.
International conditions–––– The USA is the largest producer of grains globally. The current maize crop is the second largest on record (386 million tons), only beaten by 2023 with 388 million tons. The average yield (t/ha) is however a record (12.3t/ha). The production area in 2024 was a bit smaller compared to 2023 and hence a smaller crop compared to 2023. Very dry conditions are expected for Argentina, Paraguay and parts of Brazil from October to February and can negatively impact on maize and soya bean yields. The first plantings of crops are supposed to start now in Brazil but current conditions are still too dry to plant. Brazil is the largest exporter of soya beans, followed by the USA second, Paraguay third and Argentina sixth. Unfavourable conditions can have a positive impact on global soya prices.
Above average rainfall and flood conditions occurred from August over parts of China that negatively impacted on agricultural conditions. For the rest of Asia is further severe rainfall and flooding possible in the north-eastern parts of India, Nepal and Bangladesh as well as the northern parts of China in the next months. Although adverse weather conditions caused damage to crops, are global stocks of grains still at very high levels and are prices relatively low. 5. Impact of climate change in South Africa––
There is a shift towards later last dates of frost and extreme cold conditions. Last dates of frost are now between one and four weeks later compared to a few decades ago. It is also evident in the current snow and very cold conditions still occurring. Rainfall patterns are also changing in the Summer Rainfall Area.
The amount of winter and spring (June to end of October) rain is decreasing while midsummer rain is on the increase. An example is Bothaville in the Free State, where winter and spring rain amounted to about 27% of total rainfall per year in the early 1980’s, to less than 10% currently. Midsummer (December to February) rainfall increased over this period from 37% to 53%.
