Widespread thundershowers occurred during the weekend over much of the summer rainfall region, including the western to central parts of the maize-production region.
This represents a timely start to rainfall over the central interior, a feature (early – to – normal start) that was absent during the last few years over the western maize-production region. The northeastern parts of the country (Limpopo and northern Mpumalanga) were mostly excluded from the rainfall however. The next few days will see a continuation of scattered to widespread thundershowers over most of the summer rainfall region, moving out by Friday and giving way to drier conditions during the weekend.
Once again, rainfall will feature more strongly over the central parts than the northeast according to current forecasts. The following is a summary of weather conditions during the next few days: ·
General:
Rainfall will be near normal over most of the country and above normal over the winter rainfall region.
Temperatures will be near normal over the interior during the remainder of the week, but it will start warming up in the north again by the weekend with drier conditions indicated then.
Scattered thundershowers will remain in place over the interior until Thursday Drier conditions will develop over the interior, with cool, dry air expected to invade the southern to western parts by the weekend while it will become hot in the northeast. o
Thundershowers may become severe, especially by Wednesday and Thursday over the central to eastern and northeastern interior.
Maximum temperatures over the western maize production areas will be in the order of 28 – 35°C, with higher temperatures during the weekend. Minimum temperatures will be in the order of 15 – 22°C. o
Maximum temperatures over the eastern maize-production region will range between 24 and 33°C, with the cooler conditions in place until Friday, followed by warmer conditions during the weekend. Minimums will be in the order of 13 – 19°C. · Detailed: o Tuesday (3 rd): Partly cloudy and mild with scattered thundershowers over the western, central and northern interior. Little to no rain is expected over the far eastern parts, into KZN. o Wednesday (4 th): Thundershowers will spread over the entire central to eastern interior, but including also the interior of the Western Cape. Thundershowers over the interior of the Northern Cape and western parts of North West and the Free State may have an enhanced tendency to become severe, with strong winds and hail. It will be mild and windy over the winter rainfall region and Karoo with showers and thundershowers. Cooler, dry weather will spread into the western interior. o Thursday (5 th): Scattered thundershowers are expected over the eastern and northeastern parts (some thundershowers may become severe), with showers still possible also along the Garden Route and Karoo in the south.
It will become cool and dry over the western and central interior with westerly winds. o Friday and Saturday (6 th and 7th) Mild to warm, dry and windy (westerly winds) conditions will dominate the western to central parts. Isolated thundershowers will still be possible in the far northeast on Saturday. It will be very hot over the Limpopo River Valley and Lowveld. A cold front will bring further cooling and showers to the winter rainfall region of the Western Cape, spreading further east into the Karoo. o Sunday (8 th): More showers are expected over the winter rainfall region with another frontal system moving over the region, bringing colder air also into the southwestern interior where it will be windy. Isolated thundershowers will develop over the central parts according to current forecast. Cold air will spread over the Karoo with showers setting in from the west over the Karoo and Garden Route. o Monday (9th): Cooler, dry air will be present over much of the central and western interior where it will be windy. Isolated thundershowers will relocate to the eastern and northeastern parts.
Cool to cold - windy conditions with scattered showers and thundershowers are expected over the Karoo and Eastern Cape, spreading into KZN during the day while it will be overcast with showers along the Eastern Cape and KZN coast. Thundershowers over northern KZN and Mpumalanga will become scattered in the afternoon, and severe in some cases. The wind may become strong southeasterly in the southwest. Seasonal overview ENSO and seasonal forecasts Due to a positive association with La Niña, rainfall over the southern African interior is expected to be above normal through the summer according to seasonal forecast models. (Updated 27 October) Central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures remain at La Niña levels, as do most atmospheric indicators, including trade winds and cloudiness. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has moved back into neutral values, most likely due to the influence of a passing MJO event. The SOI is expected to return to La Niña levels in the coming weeks. La Niña typically increases the chance of above average rainfall across southern Africa during summer.
