Study shows hot leaves can’t catch carbon from air — it’s bad news for rainforests — and Earth

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On the east coast of Australia, in tropical North Queensland, lies the Daintree rainforest – a place where the density of trees forms an almost impenetrable mass of green.

Stepping into the forest can feel like stepping back in time. It contains many ancient plant families dating back to the ancient supercontinent of Gondwana. The air is warm and thick with humidity, carrying the earthy scent of wet leaves and soil. Sunlight filters through the dense canopy in scattered beams, while ferns and seedlings carpet the forest floor.

The Daintree and other tropical rainforests, including those in the Amazon, the Congo Basin and Southeast Asia, have been called the “lungs” of our Earth. They absorb carbon dioxide from the air while releasing water vapour and oxygen via photosynthesis – the process by which plants take in carbon dioxide and fix energy.

Because of this, their leafy canopies play a crucial role in regulating the global climate – and mitigating global warming.

But our recent research shows that rising temperatures will severely affect the ability of tropical forests to photosynthesise. This will hinder their capacity to absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, reducing their role in mitigating global warming and exacerbating climate change.

Coping with a rapidly changing climate
The ability of plants to adjust to different environments (also known as acclimating) is an important strategy for them to cope with a changing world.

Plants can dynamically acclimate to their environment. When warmed, they can adjust their photosynthesis to perform more efficiently at moderately higher temperatures. This allows them to maintain or even increase their carbon uptake under these new conditions.

However, tropical trees may have a limited capacity to acclimate to warming, because they have evolved under relatively stable climatic conditions. As a result, they are already near the upper limit of temperatures they can tolerate without suffering damage.

Warming the leaves of tropical rainforest trees
To test this theory, we set up an experiment in the Daintree rainforest focusing on tropical trees between 15 and 30 metres tall.

Using a canopy crane to access the treetops, we installed custom-made leaf-heater boxes to warm leaves from four mature tree species by 4°C – a temperature rise predicted for tropical systems by 2100.

Boxes were made from plastic takeaway containers with fishing wire to hold the leaf in place and a heating wire to heat the leaves. Leaf temperatures were measured throughout the experiment and a feedback control algorithm was used to maintain consistent heating.

  Soil Carbon Sequestration versus Soil Regeneration

The experiment lasted eight months, making it one of the longest running in-situ leaf warming experiments in a mature tropical forest.

By comparing the physiological responses of warmed leaves to the responses of non-warmed leaves, we were able to capture a realistic picture of how tropical tree leaves might respond to future climate warming.

Warming reduces photosynthesis across all species
Our study found warming reduced photosynthesis across all species.

Photosynthetic rates dropped by an average of 35% in warmed leaves compared to non-warmed controls. This decline was driven by two key factors.

First, the leaf pores, called stomata, which allow carbon dioxide to enter and water to escape, became less open in response to the drier air around the warmed leaves.

Second, the warmer temperatures interfered with the enzymes essential for photosynthesis, reducing their ability to fix carbon.

Even after eight months of warming, the trees showed little ability to adjust to the higher temperatures. They did not improve their capacity to photosynthesise effectively at the elevated temperatures, nor did they shift the maximum temperature at which photosynthesis could be maintained.

This supports the idea that these trees may already be operating close to their thermal limits.

Significant implications for the global water cycle
Our findings of reduced carbon uptake and decreased water loss due to stomatal closure under warmer temperatures align with the concept of a “weakened pulse” of water exchange in tropical systems.

This has significant implications for the global water cycle.

While stomatal closure can limit water released to the atmosphere, a drier atmosphere simultaneously extracts more moisture from trees, creating a complex dynamic.

The response of tropical forests to warming will undoubtedly affect the water cycle, but the overall impact remains uncertain.

Little room to adapt
Other studies have also pointed to detrimental effects of climate change on tropical ecosystems, including a warmer and drier atmosphere.

Lowland tropical environments are already near the physiological limits for photosynthesis. This leaves little room for trees to adapt to rising temperatures and drier conditions.

Combined with predictions of warming and drying from climate models, these studies point to less resilient tropical forests under climate change, weakening their role as the lungs of the Earth.

Protecting rainforest biodiversity offers hope
However, the biodiversity of tropical rainforests offers some hope, as not all species are equally vulnerable.

Recent research shows fast-growing species are less affected by warming compared to slow-growing ones. While this is promising, it’s important to remember that species that live longer play the most significant role in long-term carbon storage.

These findings highlight the urgency of protecting tropical forests and limiting the magnitude of global warming by carbon dioxide emissions.

Conservation strategies should focus on maintaining biodiversity to enhance resilience, and identifying species that have a greater potential to acclimate in a warming world.


Weak Rand drives import parity costs upwards

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Nitrogen

Urea prices were higher across most benchmarks as the latest Indian tender closed on Thursday

Prices have not yet emerged from yesterday’s Indian urea tender but indications are that the price will land in the $360-370/t CFR India bracket.

The Middle East urea price rose by around $4/t going into the mid-$350s and the Indian tender price will largely dictate where the benchmark price finishes the year. Some late season spot trades to Australia helped lift the Middle East top end price.

Prices in Brazil continued to run up as lack of Iranian product and demand from the Indian tender drove prices higher. The Brazilian price is now at $360/t CFR, which rules out supply from the Middle East at present. Brazil will go through a lull in demand as the summer rainfall season ends but their Safrinha season will start from February and will require more nitrogen.

Egypt enjoyed rising urea prices on the back of traders looking for cover for the Indian tender and European buying as domestic European production remains down due to uneconomically-high gas prices. Egyptian urea is now approaching the $400/t FOB mark.

Ethiopia closes a urea tender for 820,000t early next week, which is also contributing to demand at present. This tender calls for delivery from January through to June next year, so the demand is somewhat spread out.

Iranian production remains limited because of gas restrictions in country – this has put Turkey under pressure and forced them to look to the Middle East, Russia and Egypt for product, which added to price support this week.

Ammonium sulphate prices are being pressed downwards because of a slowdown in Brazilian buying – the season in Brazil is close to an end and record volumes of amsul have already been committed. While there were no major price movements, the key Chinese amsul benchmarks were showing values being down by a dollar or two. Chinese export data for January to November shows that they exported over 15 million tons this year, 20% up on the same period in the prior year.

Ammonium Nitrate markets are moving in different directions in different markets. In Europe, producers are trying to push prices up as the spring season approaches, whereas in Brazil prices are falling as demand ends.

The outlook for Ammonia points to lower prices coming as supply has improved relatively and demand remains soft.
 


Phosphates

Phosphate prices remained steady on limited market liquidity

Most price benchmarks were unchanged this week as spot trades were few and far between. The general sentiment is that prices are arguably a few dollars up this week.

The big producers in Morocco and Saudi continue to shift big volumes of MAP and DAP under formula pricing, which does not shift the spot price quotations. Large volumes have been sold to Europe, Australia, India and some of the other Asian markets this week.

In the US MAP and DAP prices converged with each other, as the premium for MAP declines.

As the Dollar continues to strengthen against most currencies, the Brazilian Real took a beating this week, dropping to record lows against the dollar. This is hurting demand for fertilizer as local prices are rising as a result. At least the fertilizer season is almost over and most of the product has been bought – on the flip side the weak currency will be helping Brazil’s exports of grains and oilseeds.

 

Potash

Potash prices gathering upward momentum as producers focus on Q1 2025

With the holidays approaching and Southern Hemisphere buying coming to end, potash markets were slow this week although continuing to show steady upwards momentum.

The Brazilian price rose $10 on the high end of the spread and there is not much product on offer below $300/t. Whether Brazil will be a serious buyer in Q1 remains to be seen – the Safrinha season usually relies on utilization of nutrients already applied from the summer season, especially P and K. But if potash prices are set to rise through 2025, Brazilian buyers may be astute enough to keep buying now, as prices are unlikely to be lower in the middle of the year when they would otherwise buy.

South East Asia is also showing more positive demand and producers and traders are optimistic about prices for Q1.

 

General Market Outlook 

SA Maize reaches record high prices as Rand weakens
Brent Crude oil continues to float in the low $70s/bbl after a brief spike early in the week to $74/bbl. Various conflicting macro-economic drivers have caused volatility in oil prices this week, with US oil stocks showing a big drawdown leading to higher prices, before indications from the US Fed of impending interest rates cuts causing pessimism around oil demand and sending prices lower. Brent Crude is currently trading at $72.5/bbl.

European gas markets got a small measure of relief this week as tensions with Russia have lowered somewhat and the TTF gas price has fallen to $12.6/MMBtu. US gas prices have continued to climb and now sit at $3.6/MMBtu.

After last week’s strong (and surprising) performance, the Rand devalued sharply versus the Dollar this week, dropping to R18.4 to the Dollar – a decline of almost 5%.

Maize prices had a major lift this week – the international CME price was up around 2% but increasingly negative news about the current summer season in Southern Africa has boosted local maize values massively. The Rand devaluation has added to this. So this week saw Safex white maize approaching R6,800/t and yellow maize almost reaching R5,500/t which are all-time record high prices for South African maize.

Latest Direct Hedge quotes for Urea and MAP Swaps in USD:

 

 

Arab Gulf urea
19 Dec 2024

Arab Gulf urea
12 Dec 2024

Week-on-week change

 

Bid

Ask

Bid

Ask

Bid

Ask

Dec-24

-

-

345

355

-

-

Jan-25

-

-

358

364

-

-

 

Feb-25

-

-

355

365

-

-

 

Q1-25

-

-

355

365

-

-

 

 

MAP Brazil CFR
19 Dec 2024

MAP Brazil CFR
12 Dec 2024

Week-on-week change

 

Bid

Ask

Bid

Ask

Bid

Ask

Dec-24

-

-

615

635

-

-

 

Jan-25

-

-

590

620

-

-

 

 

 

Unfortunately no Swaps prices have been published this week, so there is no update or commentary.

If you would like to discuss these fertilizer price trends in more detail, or discuss other fertilizer products not addressed in this report, we would love to hear from you. We would also be happy to discuss your fertilizer procurement needs with you.

 

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Andrew Prince 


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Urea prices continue to firm.

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Urea prices continue to firm.


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