World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 3rd  March  2025

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 3rd March 2025

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In 2024, Ukrainian poultry exports jumped by 20.4%, reaching an all-time high of $962.7 million, according to the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada’s agricultural committee. In volume, sales to foreign countries climbed by 5.7% to 448,800 tonnes, the Ukrainian lawmakers reported. As in previous years, the Netherlands remained the largest importer of Ukrainian poultry, with a share of 23.2%. Saudi Arabia was ranked second (16.1%) and Slovakia third (8.5%). In addition, Ukraine exported 77,800 tonnes of eggs in 2024, which is 59.4% more compared with the previous year. In value, growth surged 22.5%, reaching US$74.5 million. The leading sales markets for Ukrainian eggs were Israel (14.1%), Poland (11.7%), and Italy (11.1%).

The European Union (EU) is mostly self-sufficient in food and agriculture, relying on imports primarily for soy (used as animal feed) and tropical products. It produces surpluses that are exported globally, with a significant portion—EUR 38 billion worth—going to the US, compared to just EUR 14 billion in imports from the US. This trade imbalance highlights the US as a key market for EU exporters, who send processed goods like wine, spirits, dairy, and processed fruits, while importing US commodities such as soy and forest products.

If the US imposes tariffs on EU food and agriculture products, US importers would initially face higher costs, making EU goods pricier and weakening the competitive edge of EU exporters. An analysis suggests agricultural machinery would be hit hardest, with beverages, fruits and vegetables, dairy, and seafood facing moderate impacts. EU companies could respond in five ways: maintain prices and pass costs to US importers (if demand is inelastic), lower prices to remain competitive, exit the US market, reroute supply chains through tariff-free countries, or establish production in the US.
A broader trade war sparked by such tariffs would ripple beyond initial trade flows, affecting interconnected regions and sectors globally due to the complex nature of modern trade networks.

The recent increase in egg prices in Brazil is attributed to a seasonal surge in demand, a trend typically seen before and during Lent, as consumers favor white proteins and eggs over red meat. This follows a prolonged period of low prices. Contributing to the price hike are rising production costs: corn, a key feed ingredient, has increased by 30% over the past eight months, packaging costs have more than doubled, and record-high temperatures have reduced poultry productivity, constraining supply.
The ABPA expects prices to stabilize post-Lent as consumption patterns normalize. They also note that while egg exports are growing, they represent less than 1% of Brazil’s projected 59 billion egg production this year, thus having minimal impact on domestic supply. Per capita egg consumption in Brazil is forecasted to hit 272 units in 2024, surpassing the global average by over 40 eggs per person.

The 2025 European Ploughing Championships will take place on March 1-2 in Retford, Nottinghamshire, hosted on land at Upper Morton by Joseph Camm Farms Ltd. The event includes the European Reversible Ploughing Championships and the European Vintage Ploughing Championships, with the latter divided into five categories: vintage trailed, hydraulic, classic, classic reversible, and vintage reversible ploughs. Champion ploughmen from 13 countries, including France, Germany, Czech Republic, Switzerland, and Sweden, will participate, most bringing their own tractors and ploughs, though some will borrow equipment from British counterparts.
England’s representatives include past and present British champions: Mick Chappell and Will Tupper in the reversible contest, John Crowder in vintage trailed, Jon Cole in classic, Richard Ingram in vintage mounted, Graham Sutton and Steve Watkins in classic reversible, and Lee Gilbert and John Hornsby in vintage reversible. Alongside the competitions, demonstrations will feature horse ploughing (led by British champion Martin Kerswell with his Percheron horses, plus Shires and Norwegian Fjords), vintage high-cut ploughing (including British champion Shaun Garrod), horticultural ploughing (by British champion Martin Cotton), and steam ploughing with historic engines like a 1917 Fowler K5 and a 1918 J & H McLaren.
Organized by the Society of Ploughmen, a registered charity, the event will also host trade stands selling items from gloves to tractors, food stalls, and is supported by sponsors like Bridgestone and Kverneland UK. Chief Executive Sue Frith anticipates a strong turnout from both international visitors and local supporters, highlighting the event as a celebration of ploughing skill and farming heritage.

World Farming Agriculture and Commodity news - Short update 24th February 2025

Led by Egypt’s rebounding demand for beef variety meat and an increase in muscle cut shipments to Kuwait and Qatar,  US beef exports to the Middle East rebounded  in 2024, according to year-end data released by USDA and compiled by the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF). Beef exports reached 52,337 mt, up 18% year-over-year.  Export value increased 12% to $230 million, and export value was record-large to Qatar, Jordan and Bahrain.  Fourth quarter exports were hampered by an impasse with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) over halal certification. While this obstacle has been temporarily resolved, regaining full access to the UAE remains a top priority for the US industry.

The USDA’s forecast for the 2025-26 season is bearish, predicting increased supplies of corn, soybeans, and wheat, which will exert downward pressure on prices. For corn, the USDA projects 94 million acres planted (up from 90.6 million), with an average yield of 181 bushels per acre (up 1.7 bu./acre). Total supply is expected to rise by 495 million bushels, despite lower beginning stocks, driving a price drop to $4.20 per bushel (down $0.15). Domestic feed and residual demand will increase by 125 million bushels, but exports will fall by 70 million due to South American competition, leading to ending stocks rising by 425 million bushels.
For soybeans, planted acres are forecast at 84 million (down from 87.1 million), with a yield of 52.5 bu./acre (up from 50.7). Total supply will increase by 41 million bushels to 4.77 billion, bolstered by strong demand: crushing will rise by 65 million bushels to 2.48 billion, and exports by 40 million to 1.87 billion, despite South American rivalry. Ending stocks will drop by 60 million to 320 million bushels, but prices will still fall by $0.10 to $10 per bushel due to global supply growth. Increased crushing will boost soybean oil and meal production, mostly consumed domestically, with exports absorbing the rest and ending stocks remaining stable.
For wheat, plantings are up 2% to 47 million acres, but yields will dip to 50.1 bu./acre (down 1.1 bu.). Supply will rise by 32 million bushels to 2.83 billion due to higher carry-in, with demand steady, pushing ending stocks to 826 million bushels and prices down $0.05 to $5.50 per bushel. Globally, Argentina, Australia, and Canada expect stable wheat crops, while the EU anticipates a rebound from a 17-year low.
The soy/corn price ratio (below 2.3 since September) signals a market shift toward more corn acres. South America’s soybean harvest and Brazil’s safrinha corn planting could further influence U.S. prices and planting decisions. At the USDA Outlook Forum, delegates questioned the forecast, citing factors like avian flu, declining cattle herds, and a saturated roughage market, but economist Aaron Ates defended the projections, emphasizing they avoid speculation and assume resolution of temporary disruptions.

Record-breaking global air temperatures over recent years have overshadowed another critical trend: unprecedented warm ocean temperatures. Covering over 70% of Earth’s surface, oceans act as a massive heat sink, absorbing over 90% of the excess heat from greenhouse gases. As ocean temperatures rise—up by about 1.1°C since the late 19th century, with some regions warming faster—evaporation rates increase significantly. This occurs because warmer water boosts the kinetic energy of water molecules, allowing more to escape into the atmosphere as vapor.
This surge in evaporation, influenced not just by temperature but also by wind speeds, humidity, and pressure differences, is reshaping weather and climate. More atmospheric water vapor is fueling stronger storms, altering precipitation patterns, and triggering feedback loops that amplify warming. For instance, increased moisture contributes to extreme weather events and accelerates climate change. Despite its importance, this topic has received less attention compared to air temperature records.
The primary driver is rising global temperatures, and while cutting greenhouse gas emissions could slow the trend, ocean warming—and thus higher evaporation—will persist for decades even if emissions stopped today, an unlikely scenario given current environmental policies, particularly in the US. The piece hints at a future discussion on February’s weather but cuts off before completion.

 

 

Commodities March 02

Lumber 0.95% 637.00 USD
Palm Oil 0.70% 4,729.00 MYR
Wheat 0.57% 221.75 EUR
Cocoa 0.45% 7,365.00 GBP
Palladium 0.43% 926.50 USD

Commodity Prices

Precious Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Gold
2,858.62
0.00%
0.00
USD per Troy Ounce
3/1/2025
Palladium
926.50
0.43%
4.00
USD per Troy Ounce
2/28/2025
Platinum
949.50
-0.73%
-7.00
USD per Troy Ounce
2/28/2025
Silver
31.16
-0.48%
-0.15
USD per Troy Ounce
2/28/2025
Energy Price % +/- Unit Date
Natural Gas (Henry Hub)
3.82
-3.05%
-0.12
USD per MMBtu
2/28/2025
Ethanol
2.16
0.05%
0.00
per Gallon
2/28/2025
Heating Oil
62.34
-1.67%
-1.06
USD per 100 Liter
2/28/2025
Coal
101.90
2.93%
2.90
per Ton
2/19/2025
RBOB Gasoline
1.97
-1.20%
-0.02
per Gallone
2/28/2025
Uranium
70.05
-0.93%
-0.65
per 250 Pfund U308
2/5/2025
Oil (Brent)
73.16
-0.97%
-0.72
USD per Barrel
2/28/2025
Oil (WTI)
69.94
-0.27%
-0.19
USD per Barrel
2/28/2025
Industrial Metals Price % +/- Unit Date
Aluminium
2,602.85
-0.99%
-26.00
USD per Ton
2/28/2025
Lead
1,980.10
-0.03%
-0.55
USD per Ton
2/28/2025
Iron Ore
104.81
-0.56%
-0.59
per Dry Metric Ton
2/5/2025
Copper
9,338.06
-0.46%
-43.25
USD per Ton
2/28/2025
Nickel
15,454.00
-1.30%
-203.01
USD per Ton
2/28/2025
Zinc
2,762.53
-1.39%
-38.87
USD per Ton
2/28/2025
Tin
31,325.00
-1.47%
-468.50
USD per Ton
2/28/2025
Agriculture Price % +/- Unit Date
Cotton
0.64
-2.23%
-0.01
USc per lb.
2/28/2025
Oats
3.53
-0.98%
-0.04
USc per Bushel
2/28/2025
Lumber
637.00
0.95%
6.00
per 1.000 board feet
2/28/2025
Coffee
3.79
0.41%
0.02
USc per lb.
2/28/2025
Cocoa
7,365.00
0.45%
33.00
GBP per Ton
2/27/2025
Live Cattle
1.98
-0.77%
-0.02
USD per lb.
2/28/2025
Lean Hog
0.84
-0.27%
0.00
USc per lb.
2/28/2025
Corn
4.53
-2.37%
-0.11
USc per Bushel
2/28/2025
Feeder Cattle
2.75
-0.67%
-0.02
USc per lb.
2/28/2025
Milk
20.23
0.10%
0.02
USD per cwt.sh.
2/28/2025
Orange Juice
2.96
-0.10%
0.00
USc per lb.
2/28/2025
Palm Oil
4,729.00
0.70%
33.00
Ringgit per Ton
2/28/2025
Rapeseed
532.75
-1.02%
-5.50
EUR per Ton
2/28/2025
Rice
13.28
-0.11%
-0.02
per cwt.
2/28/2025
Soybean Meal
291.70
0.24%
0.70
USD per Ton
2/28/2025
Soybeans
10.12
-1.29%
-0.13
USc per Bushel
2/28/2025
Soybean Oil
0.44
-2.95%
-0.01
USD per lb.
2/28/2025
Wheat
221.75
0.57%
1.25
USc per Ton
2/28/2025
Sugar
0.20
-0.81%
0.00
USc per lb.
2/28/2025