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Here are the main highlights for some of Australia's key commodities and economic influences for this month. The full report provides an overview of the developments to watch in the upcoming weeks.
In July, Brazil exported 2.7m bags of coffee (60kg), a 5% increase compared to June but 28% below the volume recorded in July 2024. Exports remain sluggish, totaling 22.2m bags YTD, a 21% decline compared to the same period last year. The US remains Brazil’s top buyer, with 3.7m bags, despite an 18% drop compared to 2024. Starting in August, exports to the US are expected to slow due to the 50% tariff imposed on Brazilian coffee. US industry players are likely to rely on existing inventories (30-90 days) before resuming purchases, hoping for a renegotiation in the meantime.The barter ratio has improved slightly in August: 1.6 bags (60kg) of coffee are now needed to purchase one metric ton of fertilizer (20-05-20 blend), compared to 1.7 bags in both July 2025 and August 2024. Rising coffee prices have driven the improvement, offsetting the increase in fertilizer costs, particularly urea.Since early August, coffee prices have reversed the downtrend seen since March. By August 13, arabica prices in Brazil had risen 4% compared to July, while conilon gained 13%. Several factors may have contributed to this recent appreciation, as bullish risks persist: Inventories remain low, exports have underperformed in some producing regions, and recent light to moderate frosts in Brazil, especially in the Cerrado Mineiro region, have raised concerns about the next harvest.Geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties also linger, including disruptions in the Red Sea, US tariffs, and the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR). The EUDR prompted early purchases in 2024, and its impact on 2H 2025 prices will depend on compliance and import behavior. Some stockpiling has already been observed in recent months.The 50% US tariff implemented on August 6 adds short-term volatility. Full substitution of Brazilian coffee is unlikely due to its role in many blends, but the tariff reduces Brazil’s competitiveness, favoring other origins amid tight inventories. This measure could reshape global coffee trade flows, with significant implications for producers, exporters, and consumers, including increasing transportation costs in the future.July and early August brought lower temperatures and episodes of rain and hail in some producing regions. Despite these challenges, the outlook for the upcoming national harvest remains positive. Harvesting is progressing well, with private sector reports indicating that over 80% of the arabica crop has been harvested and that the robusta harvest is nearly complete.
Saudi Arabia has lifted a ban on poultry imports from Brazil's southernmost state of Rio Grande do Sul, where an outbreak of bird flu was reported on a commercial poultry farm in May, Reuters reported, citing an Agriculture Ministry memo issued on Thursday as its source. Chile, which had also imposed trade restrictions after the outbreak,has also agreed to resume buying Brazilian poultry products produced after August 9, according to a separate document sent from Chile to Brazilian authorities. Chile will be open to importing Brazilian fertile eggs, one-day chicks, fresh chicken and processed products, according to the document, which was issued on Thursday following a visit by Chilean officials to Brazil last week. The document also says that Chilean authorities recognize Rio Grande do Sul state as free of Newcastle disease, which is a highly contagious and viral disease affecting birds, like avian flu. Earlier in the day, executives at Brazilian food processor BRF welcomed the end of Saudi Arabia's ban and the potential easing of Chile's trade restrictions at a press conference. BRF on Thursday reported strong second-quarter results, but trade bans did affect the company'spoultry exports and the quarterly results, managers said. Brazilian companies had faced a number of regional and countrywide trade bans after the country's first-ever bird flu outbreak on a commercial farm, which were gradually lifted. Large food importers like China have not resumed buying Brazilian poultry.
In the USDA Crop Progress report released on Aug. 11, all but three states reported dented corn. Here’s a closer look at the 15 states that reported and the three that have yet to report for that crop growth stage.
North Carolina
North Carolina is leading the pack with the most dented growth stage being reported at 83%. That was an increase of 12 percentage points since the prior week. The five-year average for this time of year is 59%.
North Carolina’s corn was rated 1% very poor, 3% poor, 18% fair, 61% good, and 17% excellent for the week ending Aug. 10
Texas
As of Monday, 69% of Texas corn had reached the dented growth stage. That’s up 5 percentage points from the prior week. Texas is on track with the five-year average for this point in the season.
Texas corn was rated 2% very poor, 8% poor, 24% fair, 42% good, and 24% excellent for the week ending Aug. 10.
Tennessee
The USDA reported 48% of Tennessee corn had reached the dented growth stage. That’s 2 points ahead of this time last year and up 18 percentage points from the prior week. The five-year average is 39%.
Tennessee corn condition was rated 5% very poor, 10% poor, 26% fair, 40% good, and 19% excellent.
What’s Happening With Tennessee Crops?
Kentucky
In Kentucky 33% of corn had reached the dented growth stage. That’s a 13-point jump from last week and only 1 percentage point behind the five-year average.
The USDA rated Kentucky corn 2% very poor, 6% poor, 26% fair, 56% good, and 10% excellent.
Missouri
The USDA said 24% of Missouri corn had reached the dented growth stage. That’s 14 percentage points ahead of last week and 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average. This time last year, 41% of the corn had reached the dented growth stage.
Missouri corn was rated 1% very poor, 4% poor, 20% fair, 57% good, and 18% excellent for the week ending Aug. 10.
Iowa
As of Aug. 10, 15% of Iowa corn had reached the dented growth stage. That’s a 6-point jump over the prior week. The state is on track with the five-year average.
The report rated the Iowa corn crop 1% very poor, 2% poor, 11% fair, 57% good, and 29% excellent for the week ending Aug. 10.
Kansas
The USDA reported 22% of the Kansas corn crop had reached the dented growth stage. The crop had an 18-percentage-point increase over the previous week. The crop is ahead of the five-year average by 1 percentage point. Last year at this time, 29% of the state’s corn crop was dented.
The USDA rated Kansas corn 3% very poor, 9% poor, 27% fair, 42% good, and 19% excellent.
Illinois
In Illinois, 19% of corn had reached the dented growth stage. That’s 8 percentage points ahead of the 11% five-year average.
The USDA rated the state’s corn crop 5% very poor, 6% poor, 26% fair, 47% good, and 16% excellent for the week ending Aug. 10.
Wisconsin
In Wisconsin, 5% of the corn crop has reached the dented growth stage. The previous week, only 3% of the crop had reached the dented growth stage. The five-year average is 3%.
The USDA rated the state’s corn crop 1% very poor, 4% poor, 14% fair, 56% good, and 25% excellent.
Which States Won and Lost in the Latest USDA Crop Progress Report?
Nebraska
The USDA reported 15% of the corn crop in Nebraska to have reached the dented growth stage. Last year at this time, 23% of the state’s crop was dented. However, the crop is 1 percentage point ahead of the five-year average of 14%.
The USDA reported rated Nebraska corn 1% very poor, 3% poor, 20% fair, 49% good, and 27% excellent.
North Dakota
In North Dakota, 7% of corn has been reported as having reached the dented growth stage. Last year, none of the crop was reported as being dented at this time, which is the same as the five-year average at this time.
North Dakota corn was rated 1% very poor, 8% poor, 26% fair, 61% good, and 4% excellent.
Minnesota
Minnesota made its debut on the list with 5% of corn having reached the dented growth stage. Last year at this time, 2% of the corn had reached the dented growth stage. The state is on track with the five-year average.
The report rated the Minnesota corn crop 1% very poor, 5% poor, 19% fair, 51% good, and 24% excellent.
South Dakota
Also joining the list for the first time this year is South Dakota, with 1% of corn reported as having reached the dented growth stage. Last year, 2% of the crop was reported as being dented at this time. The five-year average is 4%.
South Dakota corn was rated 1% very poor, 4% poor, 18% fair, 52% good, and 25% excellent.
USDA: 72% of U.S. Corn Rated Good or Excellent as Iowa Sets 16-Year Record
Ohio
The USDA reported 1% of Ohio corn having reached the dented growth stage. Last year at this time, 7% of the state’s corn crop was dented. The five-year average is 4%.
Ohio corn was rated 1% very poor, 8% poor, 36% fair, 48% good, and 7% excellent.
Colorado
With 1% of its corn crop at the dented growth stage, Colorado becomes the final state to join the list for the week. None of the state’s corn crop was dented last year at this time. The five-year average is 4%.
Colorado corn was rated 10% very poor, 9% poor, 12% fair, 61% good, and 8% excellent.
Beef: Net sales of 4,300 MT for 2025--a marketing-year low--were down 73 percent from the previous week and 66 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (3,200 MT, including decreases of 900 MT), South Korea (500 MT, including decreases of 1,800 MT), the Philippines (500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), the Netherlands (200 MT), and Taiwan (100 MT, including decreases of 700 MT), were offset by reductions for Mexico (600 MT) and Peru (100 MT). Exports of 11,400 MT were down 19 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Japan (3,900 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), Mexico (1,300 MT), Taiwan (1,100 MT), and Canada (600 MT).
Pork: Net sales of 21,200 MT for 2025 were down 32 percent from the previous week and 19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Japan (6,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Mexico (4,700 MT, including decreases of 600 MT), South Korea (3,500 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), Colombia (1,700 MT, including 100 MT switched from Guatemala and decreases of 100 MT), and Honduras (1,200 MT), were offset by reductions for Hong Kong (100 MT). Exports of 27,000 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week and 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to Mexico (13,200 MT), Japan (3,500 MT), South Korea (2,300 MT), China (2,200 MT), and Colombia (1,400 MT).
The forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Beef production is lowered on reduced fed and non-fed cattle slaughter and lighter dressed weights. Pork production is reduced reflecting official data reported through the first half of the year, as well as a slower slaughter rate and reduced dressed weights in the third and fourth quarters. Broiler production is raised reflecting recent production and hatchery data. Turkey production is reduced on recent hatchery data indicating lower production in the fourth quarter of the year.
Egg production is lowered on reported data through June and slower growth expected in the second half of the year based on recent hatchery data. For 2026, beef production is lowered due to reduced expected placements in the second half of 2025, as well as reduced cow slaughter in 2026. Pork production is lowered on reduced slaughter and lighter dressed weights carrying into 2026. Broiler and turkey production are raised for the year on lower feed costs and supportive demand due to tighter red meat supplies. Egg production forecasts are unchanged from last month.
Beef imports for 2025 are lowered to reflect reported trade data through the first half of the year, as well as reduced shipments due to higher tariff rates, particularly from Brazil. The reduction is carried into beef imports for 2026. The beef export forecast is reduced for 2025, reflecting tighter domestic supplies. The reduction is carried into lower exports for the first half of 2026.
The pork export forecast for 2025 is raised based on official data reported through June and no changes are made to 2026 pork exports. The broiler export forecast is also raised for 2025 based on data through June and is unchanged for 2026. The turkey export forecast for 2025 is raised on data through June and higher exports for the third quarter. The 2026 turkey export forecast is unchanged. Cattle price forecasts for 2025 are raised for both the third and fourth quarters based on recent price strength and resilient demand for beef. The higher cattle price forecasts are carried into 2026.
The 2025 hog price forecast is raised based on recent prices, with increases continuing into 2026 on tighter pork supplies. Broiler price forecasts for 2025 are reduced for the second half of the year based on recent price declines through early August, with reduced prices carrying into next year.
Turkey prices are raised for the second half of 2025 and 2026 based on recent price strength and support from tight supplies of red meat. The egg price forecast for 2025 is reduced on lower fourth-quarter prices reflecting recent prices and improved shell egg inventories. The egg price forecast in 2026 is unchanged.
The milk production forecasts for 2025 and 2026 are raised from last month. The cow inventories are raised for both years based on the most recent data in the Milk Production report. The growth in output per cow is also increased for 202 and 2026. Fat basis imports for 2025 are reduced from last month, mainly on butterfat products. Skim-solids basis imports for 2025 are raised on higher milk protein concentrates. For 2026, imports are raised on skim-solids basis reflecting higher imports of milk protein concentrates but are unchanged on a fat basis.
The 2025 fat basis export forecast is raised on higher expected shipments of butter and cheese. The skim-solids basis export forecast for 2025 is also raised on more exports of dried skim milk products and whey products. The fat basis export forecast for 2026 is raised on higher exports of cheese. The skim-solids basis export forecast for 2026 is raised primarily on higher shipments of whey products, lactose, and dried skim milk products. The price forecast for 2025 butter is lowered from the previous month based on recent price weakness.
The 2025 price forecasts for cheese and whey are unchanged, while nonfat dry milk (NDM) is raised. The Class III price is unchanged based on cheese and whey prices. The Class IV price is lowered on lower butter more than offsetting higher NDM. The all milk price is WASDE-663-5 unchanged at $22.00 per cwt. For 2026, the price forecasts for butter and NDM are raised based on firm demand from domestic and international markets. Cheese and whey prices are unchanged from last month. As a result, the Class III milk price is unchanged from last month and the Class IV price is increased. The all milk price is also raised to $21.90 per cwt.
Brazil’s beef sector is intensifying efforts to secure access to Japan’s lucrative 700,000-tonne import market as U.S. tariffs threaten up to $1 billion in annual export revenue. Negotiations with Tokyo — ongoing for over 20 years — have advanced since Brazil’s 2025 certification as free of foot-and-mouth disease without vaccination, but Japan is poised to approve exports only from Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul. Industry leaders warn that excluding top producers like São Paulo, Mato Grosso, and Goiás would be an “unjustified restriction” and are lobbying for full national approval. While the government supports broader access, it says final decisions rest with Japan. Of note: A Ministry of Agriculture delegation will meet Japanese officials next week, with a potential announcement timed for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s November visit to Brazil.
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