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VIEWPOINT- Planning in an Uncertain Season- South Africa

VIEWPOINT- Planning in an Uncertain Season- South Africa

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Most South African farmers know what a drought is. Although weather forecasts can help with decision-making, they are not always accurate.
To this day, nobody can say exactly when it will rain, or precisely how much will fall. "By this time, the whole world is informed about the coming El Niño weather pattern that will also affect South Africa, and the media is full of weather predictions."  That uncertainty is front of mind as producers weigh up planting plans for the 2026-’27 summer season. Pressure is coming from three sides: unclear production costs, low profitability because of weak commodity prices, and concern over a possible El Niño event. Financial strain has raised speculation that some grain producers may leave land fallow. But history suggests farmers usually keep their total planted area largely unchanged even in tough seasons.
Rather than cutting back across the board, the more common response is a shift between summer crops depending on which ones look more profitable at planting time. There are a few potential relief points on the cost side. Fertiliser and fuel prices have eased noticeably from May levels, partly due to the resumption of shipping through a key strait amid peace negotiations. The timing helps, with summer planting typically starting from mid-October. Because harvesting is still underway after a late season, input orders may be delayed slightly. That could work in producers’ favour if fertiliser and fuel prices fall further. Together, these two inputs account for about half of a grain farmer’s production costs. Still, both remain higher than a year ago and continue to squeeze margins.
Commodity prices add another layer of pressure. A record grain and oilseed crop of around 21.49 million tonnes is likely to keep prices under pressure for some time. Maize prices in early July were about 10% lower than a year earlier, and oilseeds were also trading lower. On weather, the impact of a possible El Niño may not be as severe as some fear. Better soil moisture after a long rainy season and fuller dams should support crop production and grazing. Large harvests in the current season will also build stock levels if the next crop is smaller.
That buffer would help not only locally, but also other countries in the region where an El Niño impact could be greater, in part because of differences in seed cultivars. Farmers are heading into the new season with cautious optimism. Input costs have softened a bit, soil moisture is better than expected, and crop rotations offer flexibility. But high baseline costs, weak commodity prices, and unpredictable rainfall mean risk management will again be key. Would you like me to expand this into a longer feature-style article with more context on El Niño impacts and crop choices?
South African farmers have endured several of these weather patterns. They have the guts, the determination to keep going, and the belief  and trust and all they need is support. They also hope that financial institutions — whose CEOs, managers, and staff who eat a full plate of food every day, including a huge steak — will give them a chance in the years to come to survive, instead of trying to push them under by getting them of the farm. 
Despite all the droughts, El Niño and La Niña events, and an often unfriendly government environment, our farmers have consistently ensured food security for South Africa

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